Bills vs Patriots: Ultimate Prop Bet Guide for Thursday Night Football

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The Buffalo Bills haven’t had easy sledding over the last couple of weeks. They’ve revealed what you might call some chinks in the armor.

Things haven’t been much better for the stagnant New England Patriots offense. Even with a 3-1 record over their last four, the Patriots have averaged just 21 points per game, and that’s with help from a punt return touchdown against the New York Jets.

This game could turn the AFC East on its head with a Patriots victory, who sit at 6-5 and the bottom of their division. It would give the Miami Dolphins a momentary sole lead at the top.

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FanDuel Prop Plays for Bills vs Patriots

Interception Inception – A Guide to Incompetence for Bills vs Patriots

Despite their mediocre record, the Patriots’ passing defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season, ranking 6th in total yards allowed (198.5 YPG), 5th in interceptions (12), and 2nd in sacks (37).

Buffalo’s coverage’s been a little weaker, but that hasn’t stopped them from racking up the second-most interceptions in the NFL, only behind the ~Philadelphia Eagles.~ Stay with me.

Since the Bills’ victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, Josh Allen has averaged 1.4 interceptions per game over the last five weeks. He’s been dealing with the UCL injury, but Allen’s still listed as questionable against a defense that’s proven they’ll steal one from you.

Now, Mac Jones. Over the same period as Allen, Jones has taken care of the football, with his last interception coming on 10/30 in the Patriots’ victory against the New York Jets.

Now you can’t combine these, but I like both players to throw an interception tonight in Bills vs Patriots.

Passing Parlays Against the Pats

Stefon Diggs should easily eclipse the career-high of ten touchdowns he set last season. With nine scores already, Buffalo has six more games to turn another fantastic Diggs campaign into his career best.

Diggs has recorded less than 60 yards receiving only once: last week against the Cleveland Browns. I don’t expect a repeat performance tonight.

I’d look for the Bills to use motion against the Patriots’ zone defense to garner some favorable matchups against the Patriots’ most heavily targeted corner: Jalen Mills. Mills has been targeted 45 times in 2022, resulting in a 42.7 grade by PFF, the lowest of any Pats corner with more than 100 snaps in coverage.

Moreover, this could also be a big day for anyone not matched up with Jack or Johnathan Jones, who rank 13th and 31st in PFF grades among all corners. This has the feel of a big first half for the combination of Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie, giving way to a heroic ending for Diggs.

Right now, on FanDuel, you can get Diggs as the first-time second-half touchdown scorer for +700 or $10 to win $70. I would sprinkle a little on that, but I have something a bit more ambitious as well.

That’s an $86.26 payout for only $10 on FanDuel when betting tonight’s Bills vs Patriots game. After watching highlights from last week’s Vikings-Patriots matchups, thanks to NFL+, I would put my stamp of approval on the Bills passing game, finding a way against a stingy New England passing defense.

Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire