BMW Championship: Betting preview & predictions

The PGA Tour returns this week on the back of a euphoric first win for Will Zalatoris. Wilmington Country Club plays host to The BMW Championship this weekend, the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. With a stacked field, no cut, and the top-30 advancing to the Tour Championship, we can expect plenty of fireworks.

The BMW Championship is an event that usually sees a top name taking the honors, this is mostly because of the field being comprised of all the top talents on tour. Last year saw the incredible playoff between Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay that saw Cantlay take the spoils.

Wilmington Country Club will be a challenge for most players this week. There are three par 4’s measuring over 490 yards, and two par 5’s feature 630+ yardages. Distance of the tee will be rewarded, but the ability to keep the ball on the straight and narrow and avoid a bucket-load of bunkers will be even more so.

The favorites for the BMW Championship

Just like last week, Rory McIlroy goes into this event as the favorite at +1000. This is slightly surprising given he missed the cut last week as the odds-on favorite. However, he’s had an excellent run here over the past five years, finishing 4th, 12th, 19th, and 5th. He leads the field in strokes-gained-total, and if he can figure out the wedges and around-the-green play, he should be better placed here to go on and pick up a good result around a course that suits his style.

In another mirror image of last week, we see a plethora of golfers lining up at the +1400 mark. Matt Fitzpatrick, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, John Rahm, Will Zalatoris, and Scottie Scheffler are all priced identically. There is very little to choose between these golfers as the odds suggest. You could absolutely make the case for Tony Finau. He’s been piping hot over the last 2 months, with 2 wins to his name, and 3 top-5’s in a row. He’s also had four top-10 results at this event in his past 5 outings.

The midfield

This could be a spot to cash in on some Hideki Matsuyama value. He’s +6500, which is genuinely a bit baffling. He’s hardly had the most dazzling year and has battled injury throughout. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open, finished 68th at the British Open, and missed the cut at the 3M Open. However, he’s an eight-time PGA Tour winner who also had a great finish at this year’s U.S. Open.

Hideki might not be at his best, but when he is, he’s absolutely in that top-10 range of pricing. Getting him at +6500 is a low-risk, high-reward play. If Hideki, who withdrew from last week’s event, plays below average, it’s not going to be a lost cause. But if he gets it together in time for the next two weeks, he won’t be anywhere near this price again.

Shane Lowry could also be a great play at +4000. He’s been quiet as of late but is a brilliant short-game player.

It’s also worth looking at Sam Burns +2500. He’s someone who has a hot putter, a great approach game, and came 8th at this event last year.

Longshots

Russell Henley +7000 leads the field in strokes-gained approach at 0.92 and has two top-25’s at the BMW Championship in both of his past entries.

J.T. Poston comes in at +9000. After a 2nd place and 1st place finish, Poston had his slow-down period before getting right back on the throttle and picking up three top-20 finishes in a row. He’s one of the premier putters on tour who also prides himself on prowess around the greens.