Buccaneers vs Falcons: Betting preview & predictions for Thursday Night Football

Week 5 of the NFL season is already here. Thursday Night Football leads us into a weekend of action by pitting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons against each other in a thrilling NFC South clash. Both teams have started the season positively and will be looking to assert their authority in a playoff push with a win here.

Buccaneers vs Falcons: Game info

Date: Thursday, Oct. 3
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium
TV channel: Amazon Prime

Betting info

Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | Atlanta Falcons -1.5
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +105 | Atlanta Falcons -125
Total: Over/Under 43.5

Betting preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are red-hot after battering the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. With a 3-1 record, Baker Mayfield has led a high-octane offense to some impressive wins and the defense has been as lethal as ever. This feels like it might be the season it all finally comes together for the Bucs after a window of uncertainty following Tom Brady’s departure, and with players continuing to steal the show on both sides of the ball, it’s not hard to believe the hype.

The Falcons meanwhile have endured a very different season. They squeezed out a victory over the Saints to get back to winning ways after falling just short of upsetting the Chiefs one week before. This team has all the makings of a future Super Bowl contender, but they feel like the Detroit Lions did during Dan Campbell’s first season. They still have to put all the pieces of the puzzle together.

Kirk Cousins has done a much better job of spreading the ball around in recent weeks and 4 different players amassed 45+ yards in the win over New Orleans. With Bijan Robinson marauding defenders in the run-game, it’s giving the passing attack a new lease of life, and Cousins is experienced enough to make the most of it.

The two teams have clashed 61 times so far with the Bucs maintaining a 31-30 record over their divisional rivals, but it’s the Falcons who have won two of the last 3 matchups, and 3 of the last 5. This is a roster that has only gotten better over the last 2 years and this game promises plenty of fireworks as a result.

Why the Buccaneers can win

The main X-factor in this game is undoubtedly Bijan Robinson. The rookie has been on a tear this season and Tampa Bay’s run defense is hardly elite. However, they held the Eagles (and Saquon Barkley) to just 114 yards. If they can force primetime Kirk Cousins to loft it deep to what is still an unproven group of receivers, then their top-10 pass defense, and pass-rush that sacked Jalen Hurts 6 times on Sunday, has a real chance of setting the tone and ensuring the offense can dictate the tempo as they did last time out.

Why the Falcons can win

Their offense has been really picking up speed as of late and while the defense ranks just 19th overall, the Bucs have struggled against the run outside of the dominant showing against a spiralling Eagles outfit. With Bijan good to go, the Falcons have a real opportunity to make a statement. Their rushing offense is highly one dimensional, but the way Robinson can impact the passing game cannot be overlooked. Atlanta has been a tricky team to overcome this year and a win over the Saints only further backs the fact that once the mistakes get ironed out, this is a dangerous franchise.

Betting pick

I actually like the over in this game. Both of these have the ability to catch fire at any given moment and the probability of a shootout feels high. This is a pretty big number, but it’s a fair one given the performances we’ve seen so far.