Custom model predicts winner of FedEx St. Jude Championship: Best bets and more

The Fed-Ex Cup Playoffs are here. TPC Southwind plays host to the FedEx St. Jude Championship which means it’s time to dig into our custom model one more time to see who is predicted to shine.

What goes into building a Custom Model for The FedEx St. Jude Championship

The first thing I do is look at stats that correlate to success at the course in question. In this case, we see long par 4’s, 11 water hazards, and a grueling amount of rough. Don’t expect a high-scoring weekend here. This will be a real test for most that will reward premier ball-striking.

From there, I look at those stats over each golfers last 24 rounds, and then those same stats when playing the course in question and others that have similar profiles. I place a value on each stat to bring a combined grade for every golfer in the field.

FedEx St. Jude Championship model reunites us with an old friend

Rory McIlroy may be the favorite going into this week, but he ranks 7th in my model. That’s not to say he’s a bad pick, but in such a stacked field, a runaway favorite should be a few strokes ahead of the field to warrant a bet.

The golfer at the top of the model this week is actually Xander Schauffele (+1400). The X-Man has won two of his last four and placed inside the top-15 on all four occasions. You won’t find much stronger form than that, and his average finish around correlated courses is 16th. He is the only golfer in the model to not lose a shot in any of the metrics, and the last time he topped the model, he won.

There is a close chasing pack behind, but it’s all the top names. Cantlay is 2 shots back, while Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Shane Lowry are all 3 strokes behind. Shane Lowry (+3500) is the longest odds by far out of this group, with the other three are all under +1500. If you want to bet one of these names, Lowry is your man, especially if he can get the putter working.

Sleeper picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

The biggest sleeper on my model is actually Sahith Theegala (+13000). The Rookie of the Year candidate grades out 13th in my model so could be an excellent value play if you’re looking for top-20 markets. He’s an emotional golfer and this ultimately cost him a few weeks back in the final chapter of the Travellers Championship, allowing Xander Schauffele to sweep through and win the event, and us some money. Still, he’s a pretty solid all-round player and only drops shots on historical approach and putting (none more than 0.25). He should make the cut reasonably safely.

Mito Peirera is a similar play at a near-identical price (+13000). The difference is that ever since choking the U.S. Open, he’s missed five straight cuts. Still, I’d rather be early than later on the young Chilean, and he grades out 18th in my model.