Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts yells on the sidelines ahead of an NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, in Philadelphia.
The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles now find themselves with an extra day of rest before playing host to the Washington Commanders on Monday.
This is a matchup Eagles fans had circled on their calendar all season long. It was supposed to see the return of Carson Wentz to Lincoln Financial Field, but the former Eagles quarterback finds himself on IR, meaning Taylor Heinicke will be taking his spot.
Heinicke hasn’t exactly been bad for Washington. You could argue that in some aspects, he’s actually been an improvement over Wentz. The Commanders lost late to the Vikings last week, but he still made some pretty impressive throws, including a 49-yard touchdown pass to Curtis Samuel.
However, his QBR is only 42 and the Eagles beat the Washington o-line last time out like a drum to the tune of nine sacks. Washington is giving up 3.2 sacks per game, 4th most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is now the favorite to win the 2022 MVP award and has been showing endless strides as a passer. He’s thrown the second-fewest picks of anyone this year and completed 77% of his passes against Washington. If the Commanders can’t shut him down early and then have to play from behind, they’ll be in trouble.
The Eagles defense has 18 picks through 8 games this season, which is stunning in comparison to what fans had become accustomed to seeing in years past. Now they face a backup quarterback at home. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Darius Slay and James Bradberry will be licking their chops at the potential of adding some more picks to their 2022 tallies.
The Eagles have the 7th best run defense this season. They will be missing Jordan Davis, who played a big role in making that run-stuffing unit so intimidating, but it’s worth noting that rookie sensation, Dameon Pierce, picked up 139 yards on Thursday after the Texans forced him the rock 27 times. It would hardly be surprising to see a similar game plan here and the Eagles should be preparing themselves for a healthy dose of Antonio Gibson and Brian Robson Jr.
On paper, this is a mismatch in every sense. The Commanders have naturally turned to their rushing attack knowing that Heinicke might not be able to carry the load. What worries me from a betting perspective is that this is once again a two-possession spread.
The Eagles really struggled in the early goings against Houston and their tackling was incredibly sloppy. They can’t get away with that every week, at least if you’re backing them to win by two possessions. The Birds should comfortably win this one, but will it be enough to cover the massive spread?
My pick here is a pivot to avoid that internal debate. I’m instead backing the Eagles to score 3.5+ touchdowns at +130.
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