John Deere Classic: Best Bets and deep value plays

There are only 9 weeks remaining in the 2022 PGA Tour season and The Open is fast approaching. There’s naturally a smaller field for this week’s John Deere Classic, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. If anything, there’s even more reason to dig deeper.

My custom model accurately predicted that Xander Schauffele would win the Travelers Open last week (+1800). This is the 4th winner predicted in the last 8 events, joining Max Homa, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas.

The Favorites at the John Deere Classic

My top graded golfer this week is unsurprisingly Webb Simpson (+1200). He’s the best golfer in this field by some margin and has 3 consecutive top-27 finishes. It is hard to look past him, especially when John Rahm ran laps around a weaker field not too long ago. However, he isn’t a runaway favorite in my model…and at +1200, there’s not enough upside to make him an attractive option

Adam Hadwin is actually the odds-on favorite for this week’s John Deere Classic  +1000, but my model grades him 3rd, behind Simpson and the next two names.

Maverick McNealy would be the name I look to here. He’s +3000 but is my 2nd-highest graded golfer. He’s got an average finish around similar courses of 21st. He’s only one shot worse than Simpson per my model, and for double the price, he’s well worth a shout.

Cam Davis is another intriguing option at +4500. He’s going to be volatile, but he has an average finish of 44th over his past 10, 39th on correlated courses, and is among the best in the field in birdie-or-better percentage. His tee shots worry me, but if you get Cammy D on a good week, you could be onto a winner.

John Deere Classic Value plays

My top value play this week is undoubtedly Brice Garnett at +20000. He’s my 11th-graded golfer and someone who is excellent on longer approaches, which around this course with such wide fairways, is going to be more important to give him an edge. His average finish around correlated courses is 55th. Even betting him to make the cut or a top-20 could be really profitable.

Adam Svensson could be worth a look at +6500. He had a really strong week at the Farmers Open and is one of the stronger approach players in the field. He grades out 8th in my model and has an average finish around correlated courses of 44th.

If you want to go really deep, David Lingmerth is your guy at +30000. He ranks among the top golfers in the field at hitting GIR and scoring birdies or better. That’s going to be vital at a course like this.

Custom Model Top-20

Webb Simpson

Maverick McNealy

Cameron Davis

Adam Hadwin

Doug Ghim

Patrick Rodgers

Adam Svensson

Mark Hubbard

Matthias Schwab

Brice Garnett

Lucas Glover

Chez Reavie

Austin Smotherman

David Lingmerth

Charles Howell III

Doc Redman

Scott Stallings

Nick Hardy

Brendon Todd

Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire