Marlins vs Phillies: Betting Preview, Predictions & Picks

The Phillies finally picked up their first win of the series against the Miami Marlins last night. With the game not being televised, the Phillies finally got out of the slump in the biggest possible way, dropping a 10-run spot on Trevor Rogers and the Marlins bullpen last night.

Now looking to split the four-game series, the Phils and fish will slug it out again in an afternoon matchup on this Easter Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40PM as the Phillies look to win back-to-back games for the first time since Opening day and night.

Ups and downs

To start the series, the Phillies ruined all “NRFI” bets out there and scored right away to kick things off. They held a 1-0 lead through the opening three frames only to give up four runs in the next two innings in game one. Despite nearly crawling back, they couldn’t complete the comeback on Thursday night.

Two nights ago, the offense didn’t click at all. Zach Eflin struggled early, allowing four runs in the first two innings. He settled in nicely and ended up striking out four in four innings pitched. However, by that point, the damage was already done and the offense couldn’t compensate for his struggles.

Nick Castellanos did hit a solo home run in the eighth, but that didn’t contribute to anything but his own stats. However, it did ignite a spark under the offense that finally helped them score some runs. Led by Ranger Suarez’s five innings of only two-run baseball, only Bryson Stott failed to reach base, with seven Phillies totaling 10 runs on 11 hits (Realmuto reached on a fielder’s choice). Now, Phillies’ fans can only hope that this momentum carries through to today.

Pitching matchup

Zack Wheeler will get his second start of the young season tonight. In his first appearance, he did take an inning or two to settle in but then flashed his potential once again. Despite a high pitch count to start the game, Wheeler went back to his normal self and went 4.2 innings, allowing one run on two hits. In his career, he’s appeared 17 times against Miami en route to a stellar 1.97 ERA. When pitching in Miami, this gets even more impressive, as the right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.55 ERA at Marlins stadium.

Standing opposite him will be Elieser Hernandez. Herandez has had an iffy career so far, going 7-16 with a 4.73 ERA since 2018. In his first start of 2022, the right hander allowed four runs on five hits in 4.2 innings against the Angels. Against the Phillies specifically, he is 3-0 with a 4.24 ERA.

Betting lines

As of now, the Phillies come into this matchup as -162 favorites, meaning a $162 bet would land you $100 profit if they win. At -1.5 runs, they’re +105. $100 would be needed to win $105. The total is at 7.5 runs.

Betting prediction

Despite what we’ve seen so far in the series, the Marlins rank lower than the Phillies in many offensive stats so far this season. Provided that Zack Wheeler can simply be just half of what he was last year, the Phillies should come out of this game with a win.

Betting on the Phillies moneyline at -162 will be my play today. A $162 bet would return $100 profit. If you’re looking at any player props, many of the Phillies’ big hitters batters have had career success against Hernandez, per SwishAnalytics. Along with this, as with all big hitters, the Phillies lineup is expected to be streaky. This being said, ride their wave of hot bats while it lasts.

The odds are not posted yet since the lineup is not official, but parlaying either Castellanos, Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, or Schwarber to record a hit with a Phillies win may be great value to get some money on this Easter holiday. Many bettors could also look at Wheeler’s strikeout total and take the over, assuming the over/under is set somewhere around six or 6.5 strikeouts.

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Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire