Phillies Pitching Puzzle: Post-Season 2024 Edition

The Philadelphia Phillies have checked off a few of their goals for the 2024 season. Get to the playoffs? Check. Win the National League East crown? Check. The remaining two – get the No. 1 seed (or at least a first-round bye) and win the World Series – are still unanswered. A first-round bye could be earned tonight, as they need a combination of two wins and/or Brewers losses to clinch that. They will likely be fighting with the Dodgers until the last day of the season to see who gets the edge for the top spot in the NL.

With just three regular-season games left (including tonight), and the playoffs on the horizon – it is time for us in the media to start talking postseason. Pitching has been the Phillies’ strength all season, even considering their star-studded lineup. Just because it’s their strong point, doesn’t mean there aren’t key decisions to be made in their chase for postseason prowess. Let’s take a look at the questions, and some potential answers, around the club’s pitching plans come October.

Starting Pitching Plan

The man who will likely finish in the top two in Cy Young voting, Zack Wheeler, is a shoo-in for Game 1 of whatever series the Phillies end up being a part of. Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez have been consistent all season. Those will be your go-to guys in the rotation. The easiest move would be to deploy them in that order, but the question goes a bit deeper. If they hold on to clinch a first-round bye, they will host the first two games in the Divisional round.

Nola is pretty consistent regardless of when or where he pitches. Most of his splits are pretty even, including his left-handed hitter vs. right-handed hitter comparison. Sánchez, however, has been much more comfortable at home when checking his results. His ERA of 2.05 at Citizens Bank Park would give him the best ERA in all of baseball had that been his average on the season. He’s been lights out at times, through two complete games – one being a shutout – inside the friendly brick facade of CBP. On the road, however, he’s pitched average, at best.

His ERA more than doubles to 5.02 when on the road. It’s not just ERA – everything looks worse on his baseball-reference page outside of Philly. WHIP is up over .700 points, his walk and strikeout rates shoot in the wrong direction – it’s like he’s a different guy entirely.

This isn’t to tear down what Sánchez has done this season. In fact, it is a testament to his poise at home bringing his overall numbers way down. The question for Phillies coaches becomes – do we pitch the biggest surprise of the season No. 2 in the postseason rotation? If going with a 4 man rotation, which is most likely, pitching in Game 2 would allow Sánchez to pitch in Philadelphia for both of his starts were the series to go six or more games. Nola would then line up in the third spot with a chance to continue being clutch on the road, and ready to shut the door in a Game 7, if necessary.

I don’t think the coaching staff, or Nola himself, would be worried about egos when it comes to pitching order. Looking at the numbers alone, the optimal rotation for the Phillies is Wheeler, Sánchez, and Nola in that order. Then we get to the fourth spot…

Ranger Suárez has been a staple of the Phillies pitching staff since 2019, and a key member of these past three seasons that resulted in postseason berths. After suffering lower back strains, he spent the better part of a month on the injured list. Since his return, things have not looked the same for Mr. Ranger. Even before that, Suárez really started to struggle in the middle of the summer. Take a look at this:

• through June: 2.27 ERA, 0.9903 WHIP, 103.0 IP, 99 K, 21 BB – .214/.262/.327 slash against
• since June: 5.12 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 45.2 IP, 44 K, 18 BB – .283/.348/.451 slash against

Similar to Sánchez’s home/road splits, Suárez has been a completely different guy in the second half of the year. The question is not will he be the next man in the rotation – he’s the only guy for the job. The question is how will they deploy him. Will he be strictly as a starter, see how it goes, and be ready to go to the pen earlier than you might your other starters.

As a player who’s been comfortable pitching in any role, could he be a bulk guy behind an opener? Depending on usage in the first three games, could he be used in an emergency out of the pen in one of those games and go bullpen game in Game 4?

We won’t know the answer until the time comes, but he’s the guy who could most impact the roles of other players on the pitching staff.

Phillies Relief Options

With the uncertainty around the Phillies rotation and long-relief options, one might think that carrying 13 pitchers and 13 hitters (same as the past two seasons) is the best choice. However, with several position players currently in timeshares, the Phillies may opt to go with an extra position player, leaving room for one less option in the pen.

First, assuming 12 pitchers in total – after the four starters mentioned previously – leaves eight bullpen options. There are a few that are locks so we won’t go in depth on those. Carlos Estévez will be the closer after clearly settling into that role in Phillies’ manager Rob Thomson‘s pen. From there, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and José Alvarado all feel like a sure thing as they are Thomson’s go-to men on the back end. That is three right-handed and two left-handed options.

After those five, it gets tricky. José Ruiz has been a very reliable pitcher as of late, pitching to the tune of a 1.40 ERA since July 20 (22 appearances). Tanner Banks was acquired at the trade deadline and rewarded his new club with a fantastic 2.84 ERA in his first month with the Phillies. He has faltered a bit in September but has experience throwing more than one inning and another LHP is important to have. This is likely the way the club could go, but there are other southpaw options.

Some of those options I mentioned for another LHP are guys who have been with the big league club in attempts to plug the gaping hole that is the No. 5 starter. Kolby Allard and Tyler Gilbert are options for the Phillies who are stretched out enough to cover several innings, but Banks is still the strongest overall especially when looking at LHH v. LHP splits. I still say Banks gets the nod, but any of these guys could be picked depending on how they finish.

The last spot for the Phillies is a little tougher. It will likely be someone right-handed just due to the higher number of right-handed hitters. Taijuan Walker is a complicated choice. He’s the man with the big paycheck out of the remaining options, but it wouldn’t make sense to carry him on the postseason roster and once again not use him like last year.

Spencer Turnbull is an interesting option. The veteran righty did a tremendous filling in as a starter in the early part of the season. After a lat injury and several setbacks, he hasn’t been in a meaningful spot in over three months. No matter how good he may have been, it’s a tough ask to come back after that long and be expected to pitch in big moments. He may be up for it, but there’s no guarantee he’s even ready.

That leaves guys like Max Lazar, Tyler Phillips, and Yunior Marte as your depth options from that side. If they carry 13 guys, it is more likely you see one of these players called back up for some postseason action.

If they stick with the potential 12 that I outlined, I assume you won’t see any of them jogging toward the mound in October. The last spot, if I had to pick, would be Lazar. Walker just hasn’t adjusted how the Phillies hoped, posting a 6.52 ERA as a reliever. Turnbull would be the guy if he were already healthy, but that is unclear. If the club opts for 13 arms, I think either Phillips or Allard would be the last piece, and I would give the nod to Phillips just to have another RHP option.

So that would be my approach. Starters – Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, and Suárez. Relievers – Estévez, Hoffman, Strahm, Alvarado, Kerkering, Ruiz, Banks, and one or two of Turnbull, Lazar, Phillips, Gilbert, and Allard.

All familiar faces for a Phillies club that is in familiar territory. Their focus is going beyond what they’ve accomplished these past two seasons. If they’re going to get there, this is the most likely group to carry them across the finish line.

Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports