Phillies v. Guardians: Betting preview & best bets for Friday, July 21st

The Philadelphia Phillies are headed to Ohio after dropping two straight to the Brewers. With a middling 26-25 road record, the Phillies need to rebound against the sub-.500 Guardians before returning home to the red-hot Baltimore Orioles (that should be fun).

As we head into a hot weekend, let’s all pop a Stella and open up that sportsbook because I’ve made a ground-breaking discovery and I’ll let you in on my secret (after a couple of beers of course).

Now, in my relative gambling hiatus, I’ve developed an unusual habit. A habit that’s made me reconsider gambling on Major League Baseball entirely.

See, I’ve found, that if you bet $1 on every single Philadelphia Phil to hit a home run, you’re basically in the positive. It’s always been this simple. Drop the parlays and teasers. These odds won’t quit. Let’s go.

Guardians vs. Phillies game info

• Location: Progressive Field – Cleveland, OH
• Time: July 21, 7:10p EST
• Channel: NBCSP

Guardians vs. Phillies Betting Stats:

Guardians vs. Phillies: Pitching Matchup

Ranger Suárez (2-4, 3.84 ERA) v. Gavin Williams (1-2, 3.94 ERA)

July hasn’t been a picnic for Ranger Suárez. Heading into the month, Suárez rocked a stellar 3.18 ERA which has since ballooned to 3.84. Three straight starts with at least three earned runs allowed will do that to you.

This will be the Red Power Ranger‘s first career start, and second appearance, against the Guardians. The majority of this lineup will be seeing Ranger for the first time, other than NL East transfers Amed Rosario and Josh Bell, both of whom have homered against the lefty.

Suárez has averaged 5.2 strikeouts per start and his O/U sits at 3.5, which feels low. If you can stomach the risk, you can take the alternate total of 5+ strikeouts at +200 odds. I like that.

Quick Hits – Guardians vs. Phillies

Long ball, baby

We wouldn’t say that Kyle Schwarber has definitively turned it around but over the last seven days, he’s gone long four times. Following a mediocre finale against the Milwaukee Brewers, we’re putting a couple of bills on Scwharber to homer. Odds on FanDuel are +255 and $10 wins you $25.50.

More and more homers

Through five Major League starts, the rookie Guardians pitcher, Williams, has allowed three home runs. I’m not horribly original so we’re going back to the well.

The Phillies have the eighth most home runs in the MLB and they’re averaging 0.89 per game. If you’ve rolled the dice on either Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, or J.T. Realmuto, you’ve hit 48% of the time.

I wanna go fast

Trea Turner and Bryson Stott have been incredibly efficient when stealing bases. Between the two of them, in 39 total attempts, they’ve stolen safely 37 times. Not dissimilar from my home run theory, if you sprinkle a little on both of these speedsters, I like your odds.

You can get Turner at +270 and Stott at +330. Those are wild odds for a duo that never seems satisfied with merely reaching base.

Who’s on first?

Having a little fun with this one. Tonight, we’ll see Bryce Harper‘s debut at first base. While all eyes will be on his fielding, the added responsibility might alleviate some of the pressure. With more than one job tonight, I like a loose Harper to record 1+ RBIs. You can get that for +135 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

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