The Phillies finally slowed down the Braves’ domineering first basemen, Matt Olson. After an 0-4 showing yesterday, his 2022 OPS at Citizens Bank Park has fallen to a human 1.000.
Although it might be too early to start talking sweep, Aaron Nola takes the mound tonight, and he’s been a Braves killer, albeit across two starts, with a 2.93 ERA and just one walk across 15 1/3 innings.
And following their sweep at the hands of the sub-.500 Chicago Cubs, a win today would help salve the wound.
So let’s look at a game that I believe will feature a ton of strikeouts and not many runs.
Aaron Nola (6-7, 3.13 ERA) v. Spencer Strider (4-3, 3.03 ERA)
The Atlanta Braves have the most strikeouts in the National League, and Nola has the 6th most strikeouts of any individual in the MLB. For Nola, this is a match made in heaven, and Vegas agrees.
You’d need to go in on Nola to hit 9+ strikeouts to get plus odds, and the floating heads known as the bookmakers know what they’re doing. In two starts against the Braves, Nola has averaged nine strikeouts/game.
That’s a little too creamy for this lactose intolerant. Just enjoy the show.
Bryson Stott made a statement yesterday.
The Phillies will have some tough decisions given Jean Segura’s looming return, but a couple of solid weeks from Stott could keep his Major League dream alive for now.
Stott’s $2,100 on FanDuel.
Around 7p in Philadelphia, you can expect 80 degrees and 50% humidity, just above optimal baseball distance hitting weather. That, according to Rawlings, is 70 degrees and 50% humidity.
That’s to say, I believe the early innings of this ballgame could feature a few long balls. As the evening continues, the humidity will reach as high as 66%. The longer this game goes, the harder it will be to hit the ball far.
For those reasons, I like under 7.5 runs tonight (-102), and with Nola on the mound, I also think Phillies +1.5 is a bit too generous. Parlay those two at your own peril for +172 odds.
Are you looking for a little more grease? I also like 2+ hits to be recorded in the first inning (+100).
If you’re planning on joining the action tonight, you can get $1,050 in free bets on tonight’s game by signing up to DraftKings here.
The offer is only valid to new customers and those over the age of 21. You must also live in one of the following states: Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming to participate.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Matt Rourke
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