Phillies vs Braves: There’s no place like home, can Philly bounce back from game 2 blunder?

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Wizard of Oz’s Dorothy have one thing in common. Hint: it’s not the red shoes.

They both know there’s no place like home.

After an arguably rough 5-4 Game 2 loss at Truist Park, it will be a welcome relief to be back within the confines of Citizens Bank Park. Even better, back to (subjectively) the best fans in baseball.

Will the Phillies have the advantage? Or will Atlanta ride their momentum up to Philly? It’s the battle of home-field advantage versus momentum and it’s not entirely clear who will come out on top.

Pitch perfect for Philadelphia

The man taking the mound for the Phillies in Game 3 is none other than Aaron Nola. Mr. Red October has a 3.86 ERA in six career playoff games. By the way, the Phillies won four of them. His most recent win was in the NL Wild Card series against the Miami Marlins. Nola, eligible for free agency after the World Series, tossed seven shutout innings.

Now granted, postseason Nola vs regular season Nola is a different beast. To quote Katy Perry, he’s not and he’s cold. But his last two starts against the Braves have been strong. He had two runs over six innings with eight strikeouts on September 20 and six scoreless on June 22. Not shabby.

His history against Atlanta is sold. Nola is 16-10 with a 3.30 ERA in 34 career starts against them (including the postseason), and he is 12-3 with a 2.59 ERA in 18 starts against Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park. He’s a guy to trust.

To Philly’s credit, they have a solid starting rotation so pitching is going to be their strongest suit. Their bullpen is also solid with Jeff Hoffman, José Alvarado, and Craig Kimbrel as reliable men in later innings.

Mystery man for Atlanta

For the Braves, their starting pitcher is a mystery. Alert Scooby Doo!

They have limited options. Either it’ll be Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver or an opener in a bullpen game. Now Charlie Morton would’ve been IDEAL for the Braves in this matchup against Nola. But Morton placed on the 15-day injured list on September 24 with finger inflammation and he wasn’t able to join the NLDS roster.

Instead it’s rookie time in Atlanta.

Elder and Smith-Shawver are both right-handed pitchers. Elder is 24 years old with a big success in the Braves’ first half. That was until the All-Star break when he had a 5.75 ERA in his final 14 starts. For Smith-Shawver, he had five starts this year and seven homers and 14 runs in 25.1 innings pitched with a 4.26 ERA.

Elder also has faced Philadelphia before. He shut the Phillies out over seven innings on June 22 but didn’t make it out of the fourth inning of his start against them on September 20. He walked five and allowed two long balls to Nick Castellanos. Smith-Shawver has never faced Red October.

Battle of the batters

Both lineups are going to be equally intriguing and both offenses need to bring their a-game.

All of Atlanta’s hitters struggled through the first 14 frames of this series. They have Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Marcell Ozuna were three of MLB and the Braves’ hottest players. Those guys are going to need to establish an early lead for Atlanta to have an advatnage. The Braves scored 65 runs in the first inning this season, contributing to a total of 146 runs overall. They had no runs in Game 1 and their runs in Game 2 until the sixth inning.

Philadelphia knows that its lineup will have the backing of the thousands of fans in attendance. Some of those eyes will fall on Bryson Stott, the man with the Grand Slam from the Wild Card series.

In the first two games, the Phils managed two doubles, two homers, and seven stolen bases. During the regular season, Philadelphia has 14 stolen bases, the third most in MLB. They had seven steals in the NLDS with two scoring and manager Rob Thomson expressed that this is just what his team does.

“We’ve stolen a lot of bases. We’ve taken a lot of extra bases, put pressure on people. That’s what you need to do in the playoffs, and you can’t be silly, but I think we’ve done a good job taking advantage of that.”

Rob Thomson, 10/10/23

They have some speedy guys like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Cristian Pache, and others who can easily get in scoring position. Turner has at least one hit in each of the four playoff games, including three doubles. Speed isn’t going to be helpful with a guy like Kyle Schwarber but he’s a power hitter, not a power runner.

Predictions

Philadelphia most certainly has the edge again with the home-field advatnage and the mastercalss in pitching. Atlanta has to limit Philly stealing bases and keep their batters at bay in order to try and win Game 3.

Final Score: Phillies 4-Braves 3

Phillies vs Braves betting offers

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson