Phillies vs Mets: 2024 NLDS Pitching Preview

After back-to-back seasons of the Atlanta Braves winning the division and waiting for the Phillies to advance, it is now Philadelphia who earned the division crown. Their success allowed them to flip the script, waiting to see who their National League Division Series would be. Just like the past two seasons, it was an NL East team that emerged from the Wild Card round to take on their division’s winner.

Familiar foes in an unfamiliar setting – despite their bitter rivalry over the past 63 seasons, the Phillies and Mets have never faced off in the postseason. Yes, you read that correctly. These clubs have faced off 1,081 times in the regular season, but have avoided each other come October – until now.

After playing 13 rounds of the Phillies versus the Mets, these clubs are pretty familiar with each other. Friday afternoon before their final workouts, the managers still found a way to surprise each other.

Philadelphia’s Game 1 starter was already known. Cy Young runner-up favorite, Zack Wheeler, was the obvious choice for the Phillies. The question Rob Thomson answered on Friday was what would be the order of his starting pitchers after Game 1. He confirmed that left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sánchez will be the man to take the mound in Game 2. Thomson spoke to the home-road splits for “Sanchy” as something he could not ignore when making this decision.

Phillies go with Sanchez

Sánchez was much better at home this season, pitching to the tune of a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. That number more than doubles to a 5.02 on the road. But that success wasn’t the only reason the Phillies manager provided, emphasizing Aaron Nola‘s poise and composure as a reason he might be best suited for the crowd in New York:

“Just looking at playing the Mets going into Citi Field, I think it’s gonna be a pretty hostile environment,” Thomson said. “Knowing Aaron Nola, you probably won’t see any different type of excitement out of him pitching game 1, game 2, game 3 – a spring training game. He’s calm; poised. He doesn’t show much emotion but I, I’m sure he’s just excited to pitch in the playoffs.”

Rob Thomson, October 4, 2024

Thomson was asked about the growth of his Game 2 starter from last season to this season. He beamed with pride when discussing the Phillies’ young left-hander and his comments should instill confidence in fans regarding this decision:

It’s really amazing. The steps that he’s taken, the growth that he’s had – not only physically, but mentally and emotionally. This guy started the year at 92-93 miles an hour, really commanding the baseball. Now he’s 95-96 touching 97 and maintaining his command. The change-up is a plus-plus pitch. The slider…he’s going deep in the games, held his composure. He’s had some innings where he could have fallen apart, which he’s done in the past, and he just kept fighting through it. Maintaining his composure and his poise, he’s just grown leaps and bounds”

While fans in the know may have been aware of Sánchez’s drastic splits, it still came as a surprise to many that the longest-tenured member of the Phillies, Aaron Nola, was being set up to pitch Game 3 instead of Game 2. After Philadelphia’s media availability was finished, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza may have dropped the proverbial bomb of the afternoon.

Mets Reveal Kodai Senga

Mendoza announced that Kodai Senga would be his Game 1 starter against the Phillies. While there were rumors he might be made available in the series, a murmur waved over the media members in attendance as they processed what New York’s manager told them. The Japanese star was expected to be a major piece for a Mets team looking to return to the postseason after falling off a bit in 2023. Instead, he has been able to give his club essentially nothing due to injuries.

The Japanese star suffered a capsule strain in his throwing shoulder in Spring Training, which kept him on the injured list for months. He was reinstated in July, making his season debut on July 26, but was removed from that game after 5 1/3 innings due to a calf strain and went right back on the IL. He tried to return late in the regular season but was slowed by some triceps soreness. Despite his injury history this season, it was Senga going to his manager and asking for the ball that made this happen, according to Mendoza.

 “If anybody knows himself, it’s Kodai Senga. I think we’ve been through it the whole year with him. The times that he goes out there and face hitters or throws a bullpen and he’s not feeling right, he’s always letting us know.” Mendoza told the media Friday. “And that wasn’t the case in this situation. He was the one that approached us and he wanted to know what were we thinking in case we were here in the division series, or Potential NLCS. We just wanted to hear what he had to say and offer, and he was pretty honest with us and it was an easier decision because of what we’ve been through with him the whole year.”

Mendoza said that Senga came to him two days ago, prior to their game against Milwaukee, to broach the topic. Will Sammon of Athletic reported that he recently threw a 25-pitch bullpen session. One would expect that he wouldn’t be going long in the game, and Mendoza said there is a plan – but he kept the details to himself. He should have everyone on his staff available, outside of Game 2 starter Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana who just pitched yesterday’s Wild Card series winner.

Senga was also available to speak with the media, and he joked about how long he might be able to go in the game, saying if they need to throw anywhere from 10 to 200 pitches – he’s ready. His emphasis was that he was ready for whatever his club needed of him.

In two career starts against the Phillies, Senga is 101 with a 1.46 ERA across 12.1 innings pitched. He last pitched against the club on June 23, 2023.

If Senga doesn’t go long, as expected, he would likely be piggybacked by either left-hander David Peterson or right-hander Tylor Megill, who the Mets manager confirmed would be available. Megill would be more likely, as Peterson pitched seven innings last Sunday and pitched the ninth inning just yesterday in Milwaukee.

While Mendoza did not confirm the rest of his pitching plans, Nola will likely be opposed by left-hander Sean Manaea at Citi Field in Game 3 on Tuesday.

Phillies Are Ready

The Phillies faced Severino twice and Manaea once in September alone. They faced Senga twice last season, and he was dominant vs. Philadelphia. I asked Thomson about the familiarity the clubs have and if that presents an advantage or more of a challenge:

“I think for both of us from a scouting perspective, I think it sort of helps us because we, there’s not a whole lot of work to do. You’re always trying to find an edge. I don’t know if there’s a disadvantage on one side or the other, really. We just go out there and we know each other very well. You gotta make some adjustments here and there, and you go out and play the game.”

Game 1 Saturday and Game 2 Sunday both have a start time of 4:08 PM for the Phillies.

Game 3 Tuesday and a potential Game 4 Wednesday are both tentatively scheduled for 5:08 PM. A Friday Game 5, if needed, is tentative for 4:08 PM. Games 3 through 5 could all move later if the other NLDS series is complete.

Buckle up Phillies fans, because Red October has arrived.

Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images