Phillies vs Nationals: Previewing the rodeo before another Red October

The Philadelphia Phillies have clinched the NL East title AND a first-round bye in the 2024 postseason. They’ve earned the right to have a relaxing weekend where the results won’t make or break their entire season. All that’s left before Red October is a little road series with the Washington Nationals.

The Phillies, at 94-65, closed out their slate of home games in the regular season with a victory over the Chicago Cubs. They’ve earned a free pass to the NLDS and hopefully won’t try to complain that, actually, it’s bad to have more rest. No one in Philadelphia was buying that last season when (more) excuses were made for the teams that did have a bye, so that nonsense should be dead on arrival if it’s tried again.

The Nationals, who enter the series with a 69-89 record, should be even easier to beat without All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams, who was demoted to Triple-A after staying out too late at a casino before an afternoon game. Top prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood will still be in the Nats’ lineup, though the former has not had a great start to his MLB career, posting a .566 OPS over 115 plate appearances.

First pitches are scheduled for 6:45 P.M. on Friday, 4:05 P.M. on Saturday and 3:05 P.M. on Sunday at Nationals Park.

Probable starting pitchers

The Phillies won their first division crown since 2011 mostly because of the stellar work of its starting pitching staff. After breakout star Cristopher Sanchez wrapped up his regular season on Wednesday, the other three horsemen of the Phils’ rotation will close out the rest.

On Friday, Ranger Suarez will face off with Trevor Williams. Suarez perhaps got out to a start too hot for his own good, earning his first All-Star nod but struggling for much of the season’s second half. He comes into his final start with a 3.15 ERA over 26 starts/148.2 innings and should benefit from some time off between the regular season and Game 1 of the NLDS, which is scheduled for October 5.

Saturday will feature a matchup between Zack Wheeler and MacKenzie Gore. Wheeler is once again one of the leaders in the NL Cy Young Award race. But once again, voters seem likely to favor a pitcher who threw fewer innings but had better rate stats. In 2021, it was Corbin Burnes. This time, it’s Chris Sale.

Wheeler pitched so many more innings than Burnes (46.1) and was still so elite that his 2021 candidacy can still be reasonably debated. However, he only has a few starts worth of innings more than Sale, who leads the majors in ERA and FIP while beating Wheeler out in strikeouts, both total and percentage. The Phillies ace doesn’t have as good of a case this time around. But he does have another spectacular season to look back on, highlighted by a 2.56 ERA and 0.960 WHIP, both of which are career-highs.

The series wraps up with righties Aaron Nola and Jake Irvin on the mound. After a frustrating 2023 season, Nola made the first year of his new contract extension a great one. He comes into this series needing six innings to exceed 200 for the fourth time in his career and an ERA of 3.52.

Who might the Phillies play in the postseason?

The Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are fighting for the top seed in the National League, with LA currently leading the race. The Phils hold the tiebreaker over them but the Dodgers head into their final series (against the Colorado Rockies) with a better record by one game. All the Phillies need to do is win one more game in its final series than LA to snag the top seed.

If the Phillies are the second seed, they’ll face the winner of the series between the NL Central-winning Milwaukee Brewers and the sixth seed. Although being second would cede home-field advantage to the Dodgers in a potential NLCS, it may be more beneficial to be the second seed and avoid a potential matchup with the San Diego Padres, the likely top Wild Card team that has been MLB’s hottest team over the second half.

The Padres may not be a division winner but they are a more dangerous team than any non-Dodgers team the Phillies may face in the NL playoffs. They have a record of 45-26 since the beginning of July, stars up and down their batting order, and a talented pitching staff. The Brewers, by comparison, are a tamer threat. Plus, if Milwaukee loses the Wild Card round, the Phils could play a sixth-seed team that will be out of gas.

You think MLB’s habit of embarrassing itself culminated in only the Oakland Athletics’ sorrowful final home game in the Coliseum? Think again because there’s plenty to go around! The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves have to play a doubleheader the day before the postseason begins. There were no alternative plans for the series in Atlanta, which couldn’t host games that were supposed to be on Wednesday and Thursday because of the weather brought on by Hurricane Helene. If only someone was able to forecast that!

The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have tiebreakers against the Mets or the Braves, so they’ll have to handle the Padres in order to stay alive. But San Diego still wants to win to ensure the top Wild Card spot. The Braves are out of the playoffs by a game right now. Their pitching staff and New York’s willl be in a very, very bad spot entering the postseason.

So, the Phillies won’t be able to narrow down their opponent until the regular season is officially over. But they can

Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images