Baseball season is officially back. Well, it’s been back for a few weeks now, but the series in Japan was on so early in the morning that many of us, myself included, missed most of it. But the beautiful, meticulous, thinking-man’s sport that we call baseball is back nonetheless, and that means it’s time for predictions. These well thought out, discussed, studied decisions of mine, which will, in time, go down in flames, are something I enjoy doing each year, despite relatively little success.
I understand that the season has already started, and you’re probably thinking, “Tyler, why weren’t these out prior to the start of the season?” And in full transparency, I don’t have a great answer for you. Sometimes life gets murky, I guess. So, while the season is officially two games in for most, and more for the Mariners, I’d like to believe that a 162 game season leads to the ability to bring these predictions just a few days after Opening Day, and still hold some sort of credibility. That, or you can all be mad at me. That works too.
I’ve used the word already today, and it’s going to be the Sesame Street style sponsored word of the day: transparency. I believe all journalists should operate under that word, and I bring you that word today in honesty more than in journalistic integrity. I hate this year’s predictions. Not because I feel as if I don’t know what I’m talking about (because any sports fan worth their weight would convince you that their ideas are correct) but because there are multiple divisions in which two, three or, in the case of the NL East, four teams could win. It’ll be difficult to go undefeated in a sense this season. But let’s give it a shot. We'll break things down into a two-part series. Today, as you can see by the headline, we'll take a look at the American League.
American League East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (WC)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (WC)
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Transparency of AL East: Wild Card Will Definitely Come From This Division
The easy thought on this division is that the Orioles are the worst team in the division. In, fact, the Orioles are the worst team in baseball for a second straight year. But outside of the obvious, this division is a bit murkier than expected. And it's not because no one has any idea if the Red Sox or Yankees are going to win the division. the unknown this season in the Al East are the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays won 90 games last season and held the league's best ERA after the implementation of the Opener. They did not make the playoffs last season, in part, because the Yankees locked down an early Wild Card spot, and the Oakland A's had, perhaps, the most surprisingly productive season in the league. I don't expect the A's to be as successful this season, so that second Wild Card spot is up for grabs for Tampa Bay to grab.
There's no shame in losing this division if you're the Red Sox or Yankees. Whichever team does not claim the divisional title is almost certainly going to be playing in the Wild Card game. While there's no guarantees of winning that game, and it clearly puts a team at a disadvantage in the Divisional Series, it does qualify as making the playoffs. Both the Red Sox and Yankees will make the playoffs this year. But it's the Red Sox talented roster over the Yankees potent offense that does it for me. The Yankees are going to hit what seems like a million home runs this season. That exaggeration may only be off by one or two. But the Red Sox have an equally talented offense, headlined by the reigning MVP Mookie Betts.
Picking here is like picking your starting Pokemon. Assuming you don't take Bulbasaur, you can't go wrong. But I'll go fire over water here (read red over blue for the none nerds) and take the Red Sox to win the division, with the Yankees and Rays both representing the East in the Wild Card game.
American League Central
1. Cleveland Indians
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Transparency of AL Central: This Division Is The Worst In Baseball
The Cleveland Indians have been the talk of the town in the AL Central for some time now, but the fire power isn't exactly what it used to be for the Tribe. With that being said, this is no AL East we're talking about here. This division, as it perhaps has been for the last few seasons, sans the run the Minnesota Twins made in 2017, has been relatively quiet. The Indians aren't the monsters of the division, but, relatively speaking, are still the best team in the division.
For Cleveland, the known commodity is what makes them dangerous. Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer are still poised at the top of the rotation, combining for a formidable one-two punch. However, the tail end of the rotation is what is going to make or break the Indians season. Mike Clevinger is the epitome of polarizing. When Clevinger is on, he's near-unhittable. If 2018 was any indication of the kind of season he'll have in 2019, he should be much closer to unhittable than not. Then comes perhaps the pin in the rotation: Shane Bieber. Last year, the rookie went 11-5 with a 4.55 ERA. The Indians are anticipating a leap forward in year two. I am too. Bieber could be the propellant of another 90 win season for Cleveland.
The rest of the division is a crapshoot. Which Minnesota team will we see in 2019? The one that made a shocking playoff appearance in 2017? Or the one that couldn't get the plane off the ground in 2018? I'd expect to see one somewhere in between, closer to 2017 than 2018, but not near enough to challenge the Indians for divisional supremacy. When the Twins made the playoffs in 2017, they did so with 85 wins. That won't get it done in a revamped American League. They'd need to get to at least 90 to come close, and I don't think they have the horsepower to do it.
The White Sox are an interesting team. They have a ton of young talent, but haven't put it together yet. The team was linked all offseason to both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, due to the minuscule amount of money on their books this season. They failed to land either, and will now have to go to battle with the team they have. Adding Yonder Alosno should help the offense. So too could Eloy Jimenez, who the team invested in with little proven. But the pitching staff is still too questionable to be true contenders in the American League Wild Card race. This team's time should come shortly, but it isn't 2019.
The Royals and Tigers rank among the league's worst teams. These two could be interchangeable in the final two spots in the division. Neither will be worse than the Orioles, but it would be shocking should either reach the 75 win plateau.
American League West
1.Houston Astros
2. Oakland A's
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Texas Rangers
5. Seattle Mariners
Transparency of AL West: I Don't Know How Good Oakland Will Be
That's an admission I don't like to relay. I don't want to make it look like I'm uneducated and vulnerable to any particular team, but I truly don't know how good the A's will be. The offense will be potent. They'll score a ton of runs. Khris Davis will hit .247. The team even acquired Kendrys Morales on the eve of Opening Day to bolster the attack eve further. With all that being said, the starting pitching is where this team will sink or swim. Last year, the A's acquired Mike Fiers at the deadline from the Tigers. They brought in Marco Estrada this offseason. I'm still not sure how good this staff will be. Bob Melvin isn't a total analytics guy, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Oakland deploy the opener in phases this season, because the bullpen is the strong suit of this pitching staff. The A's could win upwards of 90 games again this season. They also could be a .500 team and finish closer to third than first. I'm willing to admit that we need to allow the season to play out on this team.
What isn't debatable is that the Houston Astros are primed for another deep run in October. The 2017 World Series champions have been picked by many, myself included, to win the World Series this season. (Spoilers, I know. But forget you saw this until the final playoff article) They're loaded on offense and the lineup doesn't appear to be going anywhere soon. The team just locked up Alex Bregman to a long-term deal to keep the core in tact. The starting pitching is still loaded, headlined by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The former landed himself a fat contract this offseason as well, ensuring he'll be paid for the next few seasons. The team added Michael Brantley this offseason in a move that will work wonders for the outfield. This team should, assuming the core remains healthy throughout the season, win this division comfortably and get back to the playoffs for the third straight season.
The bottom feeders, the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners, are, more or less, retooling this season. One (Seattle) has readily admitted it more than the other (Texas). Texas, however, is more talented than Seattle, and therefore will finish ahead of the Mariners this season. While the Rangers are likely more talented than Seattle this season, I'd expect Texas to be sellers at the deadline, now moreso than ever, as the rules have been changed drastically for the days surrounding the trade deadline.
Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
