In the most recent edition of MLB Predictions, we took a look at the high octane American League, broke down the three divisions, and gave a reason as to why both Wild Card teams will come from the AL East this season. (For those that may have missed it, here's a chance to look back on the AL predictions).
Now, it's the senior circuit's turn to be broken down. Again, the theme of today's breakdown is transparency. Seriously, Sesame Street, give me a call. We'll work out a sponsorship on that word. But it's true that transparency will be used, once again, here to digest the National League's best teams.
National League East
1.Nationals
2. Phillies (WC)
3. Mets
4. Braves
5. Marlins
Transparency of NL East: Four Of These Teams Could Win The Division
That prevailing thought here is, "That's obvious. At the start of the season, every team has a chance to win the division." That isn't entirely true here. The Marlins have no chance to win the division. The question about the Marlins this season will be, "What is the lowest possible attendance they'll see?" So, let's just throw the Marlins out the window now, and focus on the other four teams in the division.
The Braves are the NL East's defending champs, having dethroned the Nationals, who had won three of the last four division titles dating back to 2014. But what the Braves failed to do this offseason was keep pace with the rest of the division. The Mets acquired Robinson Cano to sure up the middle of their lineup. The Nationals added Patrick Corbin to complete the trio of a top tier rotation. You know what the Phillies have done. I don't need to remind you about that. But the Braves did very little beside retain their internal talent. Bringing back Nick Markakis was a great call. He had a career year last year. But the Braves fell short in the offseason in the landscape of the rest of the division.
All of this does not mean that the Braves aren't talented. It simply means they've put themselves behind the eight ball in March. Without wishing Summer away, the end of September could very easily show another Atlanta division crown. The rest of the division will likely have something to say about that, however.
The rest of the division, namely the Mets, Phillies and Nationals, again, in full transparency, are all going to finish within ten games of each other. What order that is comes down to which pitching staff/lineup combo comes together on the most consistent basis. If you were to order the two situations between the three teams with gold, silver and bronze medals, it would likely look like this:
Offense: Phillies, Nationals, Mets
Pitching: Nationals, Mets, Phillies
The combination of the two leads me to my divisional winner: the Washington Nationals. If you take an average score of the three teams, the Nats come in at 1.5. The Phillies average a two. The Mets finish with a 2.5. If that's any indication of how the season will progress, the Nationals will win the NL East. The Nationals starting pitching, with the addition of Corbin to the staff propels Washington over New York for the best starting rotation in the division. It's only been a few games, but it's apparent that the Phillies' offense is going to beat many teams into submission. The rotation, however, remains a mystery.
Each of these three teams will finish somewhere between 85-93 wins, leading to an exciting September of divisional matchups. But based on my entirely inexact and rudimentary formula, the Nationals are going to win the division. The Phillies offense will propel them to a Wild Card appearance. Relax Phillies fans: a playoff appearance, with the combination of Aaron Nola starting a one game playoff and the offensive firepower of the team, the Phillies would have a very real shot at playing in the NLDS.
National League Central
1.St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
Transparency of the NL Central: I'm Putting A Ton Of Stock In An Unknown
What do I mean by that? Well, the Cardinals invested in the middle of their lineup this offseason, bringing in, perhaps, the best first baseman in the game in Paul Goldschmidt. The six time All Star brings an immediate and cemented three-hole hitter for the better part of 155 games.
While Goldschmidt was the most exciting acquisition of the offseason for the Cardinals, what excites me most about this team are the players that were already on the roster. Matt Carpenter broke a personal record for most homeruns in a season and is poised for another successful season. Marcel Ozuno is in his second full season with the Redbirds after hitting .280 and 23 homeruns last season. Paul DeJong looks for a bounce back season after a wildly successful rookie year in 2017.
But what makes me invested in a relative unknown is the young, talented starting pitching staff. Miles Mikolas begins year two of his resurgence at the top of the St. Louis rotation. Jack Flaherty, however, is the name I'm most thrilled to watch this season. After posting a 3.34 ERA last season, Flaherty is ready to take another step forward, putting together the team's own trio of himself, Mikolas and Michael Wacha.
The Cardinals are my pick to win the division, but it'll be anything but a runaway. The defending champs, the Milwaukee Brewers, return a majority of their starting lineup, and feature a new piece behind the plate: Yasmani Grandal. But what excites me about Milwaukee is also what worries me about the Brewers this season: the return of a majority of the 25-man roster. The starting rotation pitched well above expectations last season. Every Brewers' starter last season posted a positive WAR, something that will be difficult to duplicate in 2019. Milwaukee and Philadelphia will be eerily similar this year. The difference in the two teams, and why the Phillies will make the playoffs and the Brewers will not, is Aaron Nola. The Brewers don't have that shutdown ace that they can turn to when a lose turns into a four game losing streak. They need a skid stopper, and they simply don't have one.
Sitting in between St. Louis and Milwaukee are the Chicago Cubs. This team is a relative unknown this year, and therefore are a fringe team at the start of the season. The roster is still as talented as ever, headlined, of course, by superstar Kris Bryant. But the starting rotation will pace this team in 2019. Best case scenario, Yu Darvish remains healthy and a good Jose Quintana emerges. That scenario allows for a definitive playoff team. Worst case, Darvish can't get it together, Cole Hamels takes a step back, and Quintana has another dud season. That will requires this team to win a ton of 7-6 games. That's why this Cubs team is a fringe team, capable of making the playoffs, and even winning the division. For now, I'll temper my expectations on this team, and say they just miss the postseason.
National League West
1.Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Colorado Rockies (WC)
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Francisco Giants
Transparency of NL West: The Dodgers' Grip On The West Is Loosening
Let's start right here, right now. The Dodgers should still win the NL West this season. The caveat to that is two fold: The Dodgers may take a small step back, the Rockies will take a step forward.
The Rockies are no strangers to the NL Wild Card game as of late, having appeared in the last two play-in games. This Colorado team may be the best of the last three seasons. The team inked Nolan Arenado to a massive contract extension this offseason and added Daniel Murphy to the middle of the infield.
This team, partially because of where it plays, and partially because of the talent level it hosts, is going to score a lot of runs. What is concerning, as has been for the last two seasons, is the starting rotation. Last year, just one starting pitcher, Kyle Freeland, posted a sub-3.50 ERA. This team cannot rely on Freeland to go 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA once again. Those are tough numbers to achieve. It'll need to avoid plus-4.50 ERA's from three of it's five starting pitchers. German Marquez is the starter to watch as the glue for this rotation past Freeland. This team could win the division, should things break the right way.
But, as of now, the division still belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Walker Buehler is going to continue to find himself in the big leagues and have an even better season than he did last year. Ross Stripling comes into his second full season in the Dodgers' rotation, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 2018. They'll, of course, join future Hall of Famer Calyton Kershaw, who recently threw a simulated game, and will rejoin the rotation somewhere down the line.
The offense is going to hit many homeruns and strikeout quite frequently. The boom or bust style of play will lead to splits of 81 games of seven runs scored and 81 games of zero runs scored. It'll be frustrating, at times, to be a Dodgers' fan. It'll also be very rewarding when the team hits six homeruns in one game. Those boom style games will help the team win the division for a seventh straight year, putting them in a position to make a third straight World Series trip.
This is really a two team division this season. The Giants have finally accepted it's time to rebuild, and will be one of the worst teams in the National League. The Diamondbacks have lost too much over the last few seasons. Trading the team's superstar first baseman to the Cardinals signifies the window of success has likely closed. Don't be surprised to see Robbie Ray or Zach Godley on the trade block, as the team focuses on Luke Weaver moving forward. The Padres, of course, acquired Manny Machado this offseason, but the average fan won't be able to name a pitcher in the starting rotation this season. The offense will be improved in San Diego, but it won't be enough to propel the Padres further than third in the division.
That'll do it for the divisional predictions for 2019. Let's take a quick look back at the ten teams that will make the playoffs in 2019.
American League: Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Yankees (WC), Rays (WC)
National League: Nationals, Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies (WC), Rockies (WC)
Check back in at the end of the season to see how these predictions held up.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
