Let me get two things out of the way before we dive into this topic. First, it’s incredibly unlikely that Elton Brand and the 76ers are looking to trade away Al Horford. The team committed 100+ million dollars to him this offseason, and the concept of bailing on him after just 42 games is a tad bit crazy. Second, if the Sixers truly want to compete this year (and for years to come), they should absolutely be looking to dump Horford. Specifically, for anyone that can shoot a basketball.
Right around a week ago, rumors began flying left and right that the Sixers had begun exploring a potential trade which included packaging away Horford for Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum. While these reports were proven to in fact be fake, it started a conversation on the very real possibility for a deal like this to take shape.
Not only has Horford really struggled to fit in with his new team, but there are a plethora of really bad teams (with good players) out there who could be interested in moving a player for a slew of Philadelphia draft picks and prospects.
Why Trade Horford?
Before diving into the possible moves, let’s first talk about why I’m so *in* on the Sixers moving off Horford in the first place. For starters, Horford has simply not been playing well. He’s shooting a career-worst from the field at 45.5%, he’s shooting 34% from three (which is a career-low since he started taking more than one three a game), and he’s posting a career-low in rebounds per game.
He’s also shooting 65.9% from the free-throw line (2nd lowest in his career) and is averaging just 12.4 points per game (lowest average since 2009).
A few weeks back Horford was critical of how coach Brett Brown was using him within the offense. Many cited the fact that playing next to another center (Embiid) was what was holding him back. Once JoJo went down with his hand injury, many expected Horford to finally break through (including myself).
Four forgettable performances and a whole lot of bricked threes later, and it’s clear that the biggest reason Horford can’t produce right now is simply that he’s not that good anymore.
The other obvious reason to dump Al is his monstrous contract. Horford is owed another $81 million dollars over the next three seasons, and father time does not appear to be treating him too well. Horford just turned 33 this past summer and is already showing serious signs of regression, the thought of paying him big money until he’s 37 genuinely makes my heart hurt.
The sooner Elton Brand and the Sixers can fix this mistake, the better.
Grabbing value while you can, clearing up cap space, adding someone who can shoot are all other extremely good reasons to move off of Horford as well.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Continued on the next page: "Star Chasing"
Option #1: D’Angelo Russell, Golden State Warriors
A trade “rumor” that’s been flying around recently is that the Sixers and Warriors are looking to engage in a Ben Simmons-D’Angelo Russell swap. When I first looked into this, I could tell that it was absolute nonsense. Simmons might drive Sixers fans crazy, but the idea that Elton Brand would trade away someone of his potential at 23 years old is foolishness.
However, this got me thinking. What if the Sixers instead pursued a deal that involved packaging Al Horford for Russell. Not only does this provide the Sixers with a legit shooter who can also handle the basketball, but there are a ton of reasons to believe this would work out for both sides.
Russell really “broke out” during his fourth year in the NBA. He was selected to his first career All-Star Game and averaged 21.1 points and 7 assists per game in 2018/2019, all while leading a young Nets team into the playoffs.
The Nets moved on from DLo during the offseason, opting instead to commit to Kyrie Irving as their future PG. Due to this, the Golden State Warriors decided to enter the conversation, acquiring Russell via a sign and trade agreement.
The general vibe was that Golden State signed him solely as a future trade piece seeing as they already have Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson at the guard spots.
Despite the media falling in love with Russell and his Nets during their 2019 playoff run, individually he really didn’t perform all that well. He shot just 43.4% from the field and 36.9% from beyond the arc during the regular season. He averaged over 3 turnovers per game and was widely abused on the defensive side of the ball.
In the playoffs he was notably exposed, shooting under 36% throughout the series as his team was eliminated 4-1 (by the Sixers).
His time with the Warriors has been even less impressive, playing just 24 games due to his injury, he came back to see all his major stats notably worsen. The Warriors have a record of 5-19 in those 24 games.
The Warriors know DLo isn’t part of their team’s future. When Klay and Curry return 100% healthy next season, the team is going to attempt to re-open their championship window by any means necessary. This would include moving Russell to land a player that more readily fits their currently depleted roster.
Proposed Trade
Golden State Receives: Al Horford, Zhaire Smith, 2021 1st Round Pick (76ers), 2022 1st Round Pick (76ers)
Philadelphia Receives: D’Angelo Russell
Steve Kerr and the Warriors have long loved their versatile big men. From playing small ball with Draymond Green at center, to utilizing guys like David West or David Lee at the 5, this seems like a match made in heaven for the Warriors.
Not only does Al Horford fill a very vacant hole at the center position, but the potential for him to play successfully alongside Curry and Thompson is quite realistic. Horford doesn’t need a lot of shots to be happy, loves playing defense, and is a team-oriented type player.
With the Lakers primed to have Anthony Davis running the West for the next couple years, Horford might be just the guy the Warriors need to defend him. Zhaire Smith and the future draft picks give the Warriors three more cheap and young options to include in their roster.
On the Sixers end of things, this is a no-brainer. Not only is DLo a shoot-first type player that this team desperately needs, but he was actually teammates with both Embiid AND Simmons at one point during high school. Yes, all three attended Montverde Academy in Florida at some stage and Russell remains close with both players. The chemistry between the trio would be second to none.
Continued on the next page: "Perimeter Deadeye"
Option #2: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sacramento Kings
The Kings are going nowhere fast. At 15-25 they are the third-worst team in the Western Conference and should be in full-on sell mode by this upcoming trade deadline. A name on the Kings that has been heavily linked to the 76ers this season (and last season for that matter) is shooting guard Bogdan Bogdanovic.
Bogdanovic, simply put, is a shooter. A career 37.7% shooter from beyond the arc, Bogdan has made a living off being able to hit jumpers on a consistent basis. He’s currently averaging close to 7 three-point attempts per game and has seen his points per game average rise to a career-best of 14.5.
Bogdanovic signed a three-year extension with the Kings back in 2017 and is currently due to become a restricted free agent this offseason. With a cap hit of over $16 million if the Kings do place a qualifying offer on the guard, it seems unlikely that he’ll remain in Sacramento.
The Kings handed out over $100 million dollars to Buddy Hield this summer and spent a top draft pick on De’Aaron Fox. Those two are pretty blatantly the future of their organization. Opting to pay yet another guard would make little sense, especially considering they’ve gotten next to zero production from any bigs recently.
Proposed Trade
Sacramento Receives: Al Horford, 2020 2021 1st Round Pick (76ers), and 2020 2nd Round Pick (Hawks)"
Philadelphia Receives: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Dwayne Dedmon, Wenyen Gabriel
The Kings should like this offer for a few reasons. First, they get Al Horford. Despite Horford’s ill fit in Philly, he’s definitely a better overall player than Bogdanovic. The potential to pair up a 5x All-Star center with their two young guards should be too enticing to pass on.
Second, the Kings get to dump Dwayne Dedmon. Dedmon was supposed to be an important signing for the Kings this offseason, but it just hasn’t worked out. He submitted a very public trade request less than 40 games into his time in Sacramento.
Finally, the team avoids losing Bogdanovic for nothing. Bogdanovic most likely will be walking away from the team either this offseason or the following. Moving him for assets now salvages some level of value.
For Philadelphia, this would be a big-time overpay. They’d be giving up quite a bit for a player who in all honesty is just a role player. However, the sooner the Sixers bite the bullet on this Al Horford disaster, the better. Bogdanovic provides some much-needed shooting to the roster and would seriously open things up for Simmons and Embiid down low.
Dedmon’s contract is gross ($40mil/3 years), but it should be relatively easy to convince a team to trade for the veteran big (with a draft pick attached to him). Or, Philly could utilize him as the primary center while Embiid rehabs, and then as the main backup over Kyle O'Quinn later in the year.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Continued on the next page: "Three Team Deal"
Option #3: Three Team Deal
If it truly comes to it, Elton Brand and the 76ers may just have to bite the bullet and do whatever it takes to dump Horford and his contract. This is obviously the worst-case scenario for Philly. Admitting that you made a mistake reflects poorly on the front office, and trading away a player you just paid $100+ million too may scare away future free agents.
However, if it means pushing the Sixers back into title contention this year by adding a slew of productive shooters, while also clearing up a whole ton of cap space for the future, it’s a move the 76ers should legitimately consider. Obviously pursue bigger players to start, but if the phones go cold, this multi-team trade package is a safe backup option.
Proposed Trade
Washington Receives: Al Horford, "2021 1st Round Pick (76ers)", 2021 2nd Round Pick (Knicks)
Detroit Receives: Ian Mahimi, Zhaire Smith, 2021 2nd Round Pick (Nuggets)
Philadelphia Receives: Langston Galloway, Derrick Rose, Davis Bertans, Markieff Morris
This is a huge deal with a ton of moving parts, but the main deciding factor is convincing the Wizards to take on Horford and the rest of his owed money. Ever since John Wall went down with an Achilles injury, the Wizards have been plunged into a deadly state of awfulness. Their draft picks haven’t been hitting, Bradley Beal wants out, and their fanbase is nonexistent.
Trading Washington two draft picks gives them more ammo to build for the future, while Horford gives them a second All-Star to build around once John Wall returns.
Detroit is obviously giving up the most amount of value in terms of pure depth, however, none of the mentioned players really are all that good. Galloway and Morris are *decent* spot players who can knock down a three once in a while. DRose has been solid this season but in reality, is not worth more than a late first-rounder in terms of trade value. Moving three very average players for Zhaire Smith and an additional first-round pick is a no brainer for Detroit.
The Sixers, without question, are the losers in this trade. They give up three total draft picks and a 5x All-Star just to see some role players come back the other way. However, Philly benefits in two major ways. First, they add three legit shooters to their roster. The trio of Morris, Galloway, and Bertans are all shooting at least 39% from three. Second, they acquire a top-level sixth man in Derrick Rose. Rose has averaged 18+ppg the last two seasons on close to 50% shooting.
The 76ers will also clear up an additional $10.5 million dollars heading into the 2020 offseason (Galloway is on an expiring deal).
*NOTE: The 76ers would most likely waive a few guys to balance out their roster, seeing as 4 players would be coming in. Neto, Milton, and Bolden could all be likely victims.*
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
