Are Eagles right to avoid drafting linebackers in the early rounds?

Going against the historical tide, the Eagles 2017 Super Bowl win proved that you do not need to spend on linebackers to win a championship. This is the rhetoric that has been pushed down the throats of whoever would listen for the last three years. It's not to say there haven't been plenty of teams with cheap linebacking corps that have experienced regular success. However, is it fair to say that linebackers have gone the way of running backs, wherein any resources spent are relatively wasted? The premise of saving money at the position hinges on the idea that whatever money or draft picks being saved at the position can be spent elsewhere. Electing to spend money elsewhere, the Eagles had one of the cheapest collections of linebackers in the league in 2019 (24th). Guess what? They made the playoffs. They did the year before too, without any first-round 'backers or any making premium dollar. On the surface, it seems as if the front office is on to something. Still, the fact of the matter remains every year they have been sliding further from the ultimate goal of returning to a Superbowl. This year the Eagles spent a third-round and a sixth-round selection on linebackers. While it's not a first or a second, spending such resources on the position could indicate a change in thinking. While they do have a Superbowl ring to their name, have they done enough to change the historical tide? Does spending on linebackers really make a difference? Regular Season Success Now, the Eagles have gotten one thing right. It seems as if it is not necessary to sink resources into the linebacker position to win regular-season games. The reality is, you need to win regular-season games to make the playoffs. So, on paper, it should follow that you do not need first-round linebackers to make the playoffs. Spending Draft Picks In 2019, 22 of 32 teams started first-round linebackers in one capacity or another -- that includes 3-4 teams and teams with hybrid LBs. Those teams with first-round linebackers had a record of 166-184-2 (.474 win rate) and teams without had a record of 89-71 (.556 win rate). There are some curious cases in both categories. There are some teams featuring first-round 'backers that simply couldn't make up for the chaos surrounding them. In other cases, they are a part of a young core that has yet to develop. This list includes teams such as the 3-13 Redskins, the 5-11 Dolphins, the 5-10-1 Cardinals, and the 8-8 Bears. However, it's the other side of the coin we're concerned with. The Ravens, Chiefs, Packers, and Saints all finished the season with impressive records (averaging 13-3), but were without first-round linebackers. The ten teams who did not start first-round LBs are below, playoff teams featured in bold. Because wins do not paint a full picture, I have also included each defense's yards allowed and point allowed. Outside of the Ravens, it's unsurprising that as a whole, these defenses were not stellar.

	Yds Against	Pts Against
Ravens	4th	3rd
Eagles	10th	15th
Saints	11th	13th
Chiefs	17th	7th
Packers	18th	9th
Colts	16th	18th
Raiders	19th	24th
Browns	22nd	20th
Jaguars	24th	21st
Bengals	29th	25th

Risk Herein lies the crux of the matter. Regardless of how much impact a first-round linebacker can be, there is always the worry that they won't pan out. A first-round selection can't be taken lightly and are generally more readily spent on other positions. So, how did the first round LB selections pan out over the last 10 years? Since we're focused on the immediate impact of these first-rounders I have included their rookie stats. Numbers don't tell the whole story and the value of some of these players may be under or overrated. Also, it may be too soon to judge some of the names on this list. Still, there is a clear history of immediate success for first-round 'backers -- granted some were moved to DE or were slotted into an OLB role in a 3-4 defense. The players in bold have been selected to a Pro Bowl.

Devin White	91 TK, 4 TFL, 2.5 SK, 3 FF, 1 INT
Devin Bush	109 TK, 9 TFL, 1.0 SK, 1 FF, 2 INT
Rashan Gary	21 TK, 3 TFL, 2.0 SK
Bradley Chubb	60 TK, 14 TFL, 12.0 SK, 2 FF
Roquan Smith	121 TK, 8 TFL, 5.0 SK, 1 INT
Tremaine Edmunds	121 TK, 5 TFL, 2.0 SK, 2 FF, 1 INT
Leighton Vander Esch	140 TK, 2 TFL, 2 INT
Rashaan Evans	53 TK, 2 TFL (7 Games Started)
Haason Reddick	36 TK, 4 TFL, 2.5 SK, 2 FF (3 GS)
Jarrad Davis	96 TK, 4 TFL, 2.0 SK, 1 FF, 1 INT
T.J. Watt	54 TK, 10 TFL, 7.0 SK, 1 FF, 1 INT
Reuben Foster	72 TK, 7 TFL
Leonard Floyd	33 TK, 6 TFL, 7.0 SK, 1 FF
Darron Lee	73 TK, 3 TFL, 1.0 SK
Bud Dupree	26 TK, 4 TFL, 4.0 SK (5 GS)
Shaq Thompson	50 TK, 4 TFL, 1.0 SK
Stephone Anthony	112 TK, 5 TFL, 1.0 SK, 2 FF, 1 INT
Khalil Mack	76 TK, 16 TFL, 4.0 SK, 1 FF
Anthony Barr	70 TK, 6 TFL, 4.0 SK, 2 FF
Ryan Shazier	36 TK, 2 TFL (5 GS)
C.J. Mosley	133 TK, 8 TFL, 3.0 SK, 1 FF, 2 INT
Marcus Smith	NOTHING. (0 GS)
Jarvis Jones	41 TK, 4 TFL, 1.0 SK
Alec Ogletree	119 TK, 9 TFL, 1.5 SK, 1 INT
Luke Kuechly	164 TK, 12 TFL, 1.0 SK, 2 INT
Melvin Ingram	41 TK, 4 TFL, 1.0 SK, 1 FF (2 GS)
Dont'a Hightower	60 TK, 10 TFL, 4.0 SK
Nick Perry	18 TK, 1 TFL, 2.0 SK (5 GS)
Von Miller	50 TK, 19 TFL, 11.5 SK, 3 FF
Aldon Smith	37 TK, 13 TFL, 14.0 SK, 2 FF
Rolando McClain	85 TK, 6 TFL, 0.5 SK, 1 INT
Jason Pierre-Paul	30 TK, 7 TFL, 4.5 SK (0 GS)
Sean Weatherspoon	42 TK, 1 TFL, 1.0 SK (5 GS)
AVERAGE	59 TK, 6 TFL, 3.0 SK, 1 FF

Thirteen of the thirty-three linebackers selected in the first round over the last ten years have been selected to the Pro Bowl. That's one of the highest rates of any position group. Despite some clunkers (ahem.. Marcus Smith), there's a ton of talent on this board that had incredible rookie seasons or went on to post incredible numbers in the following years. 59 tackles -- skewed by the amount of 3-4 OLBs -- would have been just behind Nigel Bradham (61) for fourth among linebackers. 6 TFLs -- again offset by the 3-4 'backers -- would have placed first among Eagles LBs. Considering a number of the players on this list started fewer than 10 games (some none at all), that's an impressive stat line. It seems that unless you're Chip Kelly, it's fairly common to hit on a first-round linebacker. Even if they aren't a Pro Bowler, they are likely to be a key contributor to your defense. There's certainly some risk, but first-round linebackers seem a safer bet than most. Resources = More Wins? Now, obviously this breakdown is an oversimplification. There are plenty of other factors and position groups that play a role in a successful defense. Regardless of the success of the defense, five teams that didn't feature a first-round linebacker still made the playoffs and seven teams didn't have to spend big to make it there either, (the Packers being the exception). Therefore it seems as if on the outset, spending resources on linebackers does not guarantee any regular-season success. However . . . Defensive Statistics Over the last three years, almost all teams that drafted a linebacker in the first round improved in both scoring defense and opposing total yards. Below are team's defensive rankings before and after drafting a first-round linebacker, the times that a team got worse in either category is in bold.

	Opp. Yds	Opp. Pnts
2018 Bucs	27th	31st
2019 Bucs	15th	29th
2018 Steelers	6th	16th
2019 Steelers	5th	6th
2018 Packers	18th	22nd
2019 Packers	18th	9th
2017 Broncos	3rd	23rd
2018 Broncos	22nd	13th
2017 Bears	10th	9th
2018 Bears	3rd	1st
2017 Bills	26th	18th
2018 Bills	2nd	18th
2017 Cowboys	8th	14th
2018 Cowboys	7th	6th
2017 Titans	13th	17th
2018 Titans	8th	3rd
2016 Cardinals	2nd	14th
2017 Cardinals	6th	19th
2016 Lions	18th	13th
2017 Lions	27th	21st
2016 Steelers	12th	10th
2017 Steelers	5th	7th
2016 49ers	32nd	32nd
2017 49ers	24th	25th

Although there are other factors in play -- the Bears adding Khalil Mack for example -- the results are staggering. In recent years, it seems almost guaranteed that spending a first-round selection on a linebacker will immediately and notably improve your defense, even if it doesn't manufacture wins. The same can not be said of all positions. 2019-2020 Playoff Teams It's all fine and dandy to make it to the playoffs or improve your defense, but if the ultimate goal is hoisting the Lombardi, then it's a pretty sorry consolation prize. Being the champion comes down to having success in the playoffs. So, how can having a first-round linebacker influence a team's win rate in the playoffs? For this article, I have considered Ezekiel Ansah, a LB for the Seahawks as he spent much of his time in the LEO role. While he spent a bulk of his snaps rushing the passer, Seattle also used Shaqueem Griffin in this role, which indicates the versatility the Seahawks necessitated of the position. It's also important to note that the Chiefs added Terrell Suggs late in the season, who then played an average of 52% of Kansas City's defensive snaps. Therefore, although they were without a first-round linebacker during the season, they will be in the opposite category in the playoffs. Of the five playoff teams that did not have a first-round LB, the Chiefs, Ravens, and Saints were able to achieve regular-season success because they all house top five scoring offenses. Let's be honest, the Eagles squeaked into the playoffs in Week 17 and were probably not deserving of the opportunity on paper. However, they were able to buckle down in the last few weeks and come out on top of some must-win games. In this case, it is the Packers that are the real outlier. They finished middle of the pack in almost all categories -- except money spent at the linebacker position. In 2020, they will be on the hook for a whopping $44M owed to just their linebackers (5th highest). Still, simply making the playoffs isn't good enough -- we want to know if spending on linebackers can help you win a Super Bowl. So how did these teams fair? Well, the regular season favorite Baltimore Ravens were decimated by the Titans ground attack to the tune of 217 rushing yards. Green Bay had a similar experience in San Francisco when Raheem Mostert dumped 220 yards on them. The Saints were in the midst of another controversial loss, but also allowed 136 rushing yards, which didn't help matters. For how much talk there is about how important the run game is in January, there is little discussion on how important it is to stop it. We don't have to discuss the Eagles . . . it still hurts. They actually did an admiral job of containing Seattle's rushing attack. Still, the inability to contain Russell Wilson has been a thorn in the team's side for years. Although, they're not the only ones who've met the same fate.

Playoff Teams with 1st Round LB	Playoff Wins	Playoff Teams without 1st Round LB(Highest Pick)	Playoff Wins
Bills	0	Ravens (3rd)	0
Texans	1	Saints (2nd)	0
Titans	2	Eagles (4th)	0
Patriots	0	Packers (2nd)	1
Vikings	1
Seahawks	1
49ers	2
Chiefs	3
Win Rate (10-7)	.588	Win Rate (1-4)	.200

The Packers were the only team to win a playoff game without a first-round linebacker last season. While the results are not always so dramatic, it seems as if there is some correlation for first-round LBs and playoff success after all. Still, this is only one year. Recent Playoff Success Limiting the search to only last season would give an unfair picture of the question at hand. Instead, let's expand the discussion to the last 10 years. Also, since we're concerned with winning a Super Bowl, let's narrow the search to just AFC and NFC title winners. Since 2010, only two teams have played in a Super Bowl without a first-round linebacker in the starting rotation. Only one of those teams were without a first or second-rounder. On the other hand, some teams even sported a full cast of first-round LBs. The 2015-2016 showdown between the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers featured six first-round linebackers.

Teams with multiple first round LBs	8
Teams with one first round LB	10
Teams with no first but a second round LB(2017 Eagles)	1
Teams with no first or second round LB(2013 Broncos)	1

Of the twenty teams that have made the Super Bowl in the last ten years, I took the top 'backers in terms of snaps played (> 25%). I also included some other names that were key components of their team's respective playoff runs. Of those 67 linebackers, 34.3% were drafted in the first round and 47.8% were drafted before the third round. Here's the breakdown by round:

First Round	23
Second Round	9
Third Round	5*
Fourth Round	9
Fifth Round	5
Sixth Round	6
Seventh Round	1
UDFA	9

Just so that you can do your own research and shout out any of the players I missed, this is the full list of linebackers I used, listed by round:

Mark Barron	1st
Vic Beasley	1st
Thomas Davis	1st
James Farrior	1st
Dee Ford	1st
A.J. Hawk	1st
Dont'a Hightower	1st
Bruce Irvin	1st
Mathias Kiwanuka	1st
Luke Kuechly	1st
Ray Lewis	1st
Clay Matthews	1st
Jerod Mayo	1st
Shea McClellin	1st
Von Miller	1st
Shane Ray	1st
Aldon Smith	1st
Terrell Suggs	1st
Shaq Thompson	1st
Lawrence Timmons	1st
Bobby Wagner	1st
Demarcus Ware	1st
Patrick Willis	1st
Akeem Ayers	2nd
Jamie Collins	2nd
Deion Jones	2nd
Mychal Kendricks	2nd
Paul Kruger	2nd
Reggie Ragland	2nd
Brandon Spikes	2nd
Kyle Van Noy	2nd
Lamarr Woodley	2nd
Navorro Bowman	3rd
Ahmad Brooks	3rd*
Jordan Hicks	3rd
Fred Warner	3rd
Phillip Wheeler	3rd
Kwon Alexander	4th
Nigel Bradham	4th
Devondre Campbell	4th
Samson Ebukam	4th
Larry Foote	4th
Anthony Hitchens	4th
Shaun Phillips	4th
Damien Wilson	4th
K.J. Wright	4th
Michael Boley	5th
Dre Greenlaw	5th
A.J. Klein	5th
Brandon Marshall	5th
Rob Nincovich	5th
Desmond Bishop	6th
Greg Jones	6th
Marquis Flowers	6th
Elandon Roberts	6th
Danny Trevathan	6th
Jacquain Williams	6th
Malcolm Smith	7th
Shaquil Barrett	UDFA
Dannell Ellerbe	UDFA
Gary Guyton	UDFA
James Harrison	UDFA
Cory Littleton	UDFA
Jameel McClain	UDFA
Ben Niemann	UDFA
Wesley Woodyard	UDFA
Frank Zombo	UDFA

The numbers speak for themselves. 34.4% of all starting linebackers in the last ten Superbowls were drafted in the first round. That does not include those who were featured in multiple (the math on that one was a lot to tackle). The Eagles have been the only team in the last ten years to win a Superbowl without a first-round linebacker and only one other team came close -- and then lost 43-8. Accolades You'd be right in saying there's more to winning a Super Bowl than just spending on linebackers. Making the playoffs is also dependent on a plethora of factors. Still, there is no denying that the Eagles are an outlier. They may have broken the mold, but it seems as if they are one of few. The reality is, it is often the most talented team that wins the championship and eschewing a linebacker for another position of need is always a respectable option. It's always possible to find talent later in the draft. If that's the case, why bother giving up a first-rounder? We have looked at how what effects that spending a first-round selection on an LB can have on the win column and on your defense. However, there are many other ways to gauge the success of an individual player. Let's take Pro Bowls for example. Although voted on by fans, tagging a player as a Pro Bowler is a widely accepted indication that they are a cut above the rest. Here are the Pro Bowl Starters from 2016 - 2020 under the AFC vs. NFC format:

Chandler Jones (x2)	1st
Von Miller (x4)	1st
T.J. Watt	1st
Khalil Mack	1st
Ryan Kerrigan (x3)	1st
Luke Kuechly (x2)	1st
Jadeveon Clowney (x2)	1st
C.J. Mosley (x2)	1st
Vic Beasley	1st
Bobby Wagner	1st
Dont'a Hightower	1st
Jaylon Smith	2nd
Darius Leonard	2nd
Shaquil Barrett	UDFA
Lorenzo Alexander	UDFA

If you've noticed a trend, that's because there is one. Voters recognize the names of first-round linebackers. This may be more of an indication that Barrett and Alexander did a commendable job breaking that barrier when earning their Pro Bowl nod. However, it extends beyond just the Pro Bowl. Another universal measure of success is being voted to the Associated Press All-Pro Team. In the last five years, no linebacker drafted after the third round has been selected to the All-Pro First Team. If you added the number of linebackers selected to the team drafted after the first round together, they wouldn't account for half the votes given to first-rounders. Below is the collection of 'backers voted to the First Team from 2015-2019.

Bobby Wagner (x4)	1st
Luke Kuechly (x4)	1st
Von Miller (x4)	1st
Chandler Jones (x2)	1st
Khalil Mack (x2)	1st
T.J. Watt	1st
Thomas Davis	1st
Sean Lee	2nd
Eric Kendricks	2nd
Darius Leonard	2nd
Demario Davis	3rd
NaVorro Bowman	3rd
Justin Houston	3rd

Do first round linebackers matter? Absolutely. It is definitely possible to win a championship without a first-round 'backer, as the Eagles have proven. Is it likely to happen again in the near future? History says no. Even the current champions, who made it to the playoffs without a star LB added a former first-round pick for their playoff run. It seems as if they had read up on their history books. While the Birds broke their habit of completely neglecting the linebacker position in the draft, it seems as if a third-round pick may not be the ultimate answer. Perhaps they can again defy the odds; after all, the team has become incredibly comfortable playing under the underdog mantra. . Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports