When: Sun, December 28, 4:25 PM EST
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
How: Fox
Philadelphia heads north to Buffalo to play in one of the toughest environments in football, with a chance to build on its late-season momentum. The Bills have been formidable all year, particularly at home, and the Eagles will need to play to their ability to leave with a win.
Weather conditions could add another layer, as a wintry mix may arrive in Buffalo at the same time as the Eagles. Regardless of the uncontrollable obstacles, the goal is simple: take care of the ball offensively, establish the run, and keep Buffalo’s offense off rhythm.
Jalen Hurts remains the heartbeat of the offense, and when he’s in rhythm, the Eagles offense hums. When the passing game is out of sync and rushing yards aren't coming, he is the vessel they lean into to correct it. Jalen’s willingness to run the ball opens up the field, and just as importantly, the playbook. There have been many new wrinkles over the last few weeks to build on, and if the offensive minds on the sideline lean into quick routes, a few designed runs from Hurts that force the Bills to respect his threat to break the pocket, it will allow play-action to be effective, while also opening lanes for Saquon to exploit.
Kevin Patullo must get A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith active early, like they have been the last two weeks. It creates rhythm in the passing game and opportunities for shot plays that can change momentum. Dallas Goedert’s role underneath will also be key, especially when the Bills bring pressure.
Saquon Barkley seems ready to dominate and has hit for a couple of explosive plays in recent weeks, an element that has been sorely missed. The improved playcalling has masked some of the offensive line's struggles and given Saquon the opportunity to get into space and make defenders grab at air.
If Philadelphia can get ahead of the sticks, win the line of scrimmage, and control time of possession, they dictate the flow of the game.
Against the run, the Eagles D will need to stay disciplined to limit James Cook, the NFL's rushing leader. Two-thirds of his rushing yards have come after contact. He will fight for extra yards, and the Birds will have to get him to the ground when they get their hands on him, or it could be a long day. All season, the Eagles have defended opposing offenses with fewer defenders in the box to stop the run. The Bears exploited that decision; it will be interesting to see if Fangio changes his approach, even a little.
They will also have to contain the rushing yards Josh Allen will have. The Bills use him effectively in the red zone via designed runs, and even the tush push, which they voted to remove, yet run more than any team in the NFL. Buffalo has a very effective and clever ground scheme, and with the way Philadelphia struggled with the Bears, it will be quite a test to contain Buffalo’s.
The Eagles should have an advantage in stopping the passing game, but Allen has the arm and mobility to extend plays and put pressure on the defense with plays out of structure. Pressuring Josh and not allowing him to step up in the pocket will be critical.
Cooper DeJean will likely have some matchups against Khalil Shakir, who the Bills move all over the field in creative ways. If they need a quick hitter, he is the receiver they are consistently trying to scheme open. Shutting down their leading receiver would go a long way towards securing the victory.
These are two really good football teams, and a possible preview of Super Bowl Sixty.
This is the type of game that separates good teams from great ones. Philadelphia has the talent to win, but they must execute and play four quarters of football.
The offense needs to sustain drives, and the defense cannot afford a soft start for Philly to win and keep the momentum they have been building as they head into the postseason.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Bills 23
Player of the Game: The recently Pro-Bowl snubbed Jordan Davis, who will continue to have an All-Pro season.
As always, thank you for reading!
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