The Philadelphia Eagles continue to be linked to Texas RB Bijan Robinson, but the fanbase remains split on whether or not the Birds should pull the trigger with their 10th overall pick.
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I admit drafting a running back in the first round has its risks, but when was the last time a running back of Bijan Robinson's caliber was available for the Eagles to draft?
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There have been nine running backs taken in the first round since 2016 and all but one were drafted to a team that had major holes on their offensive line. The lone exception? Ezekiel Elliott in 2016.
Bijan Robinson would be running behind a dominant offensive front in Philadelphia, but how have the first-round backs before him fared since being drafted?
The first-round predecessors to Bijan Robinson
Ezekiel Elliott
According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys' offensive line had the 6th best run blocking offensive line in 2015. So, going into the draft, the Cowboys were set up for success if they drafted a running back to replace Darren McFadden. Ezekiel Elliot was drafted and went on to lead the league in rushing yards and yards per game.
The Cowboys were set up for long-term success with their star running back and reigning rookie of the year. However, they decided to run (pun intended) Elliott into the ground.
Carries by year (league rank / attempts per game) / Football Outsider's run block rank
2016 - 322 (led league / 21.5) / 4th
2017 - 242 (10th / 24.2) / 4th
2018 - 304 (led league / 20.3) / 8th
2019 - 301 (2nd / 18.8) / 2nd
2020 - 244 (5th / 16.3) / 12th
2021 - 237 (7th / 13.9) / 2nd
2022 - 231 (10th / 15.4) / 17th
Elliott's entire Cowboys career found him in the top ten of rushing attempts behind a stellar run blocking line. The Cowboys signed him to a mega deal at the start of his fourth year.
However, the ineptitude of the Cowboys franchise ultimately doomed this potential and now Zeke is a free agent and wishing to be a part of a better organization.
The Eagles have been linked to the Ohio State product, but they've also been linked to Bijan Robinson and that shouldn't be a coincidence.
Leonard Fournette
Next up: Jacksonville and Leonard Fournette
The Jaguars had the 27th ranked run blocking offensive line going into the 2017 draft, so taking a running back in the first round was an immediate waste of a pick.
They decided to run Fournette 268 times behind that line in 2017, which was 7th in the league. His Jags career only lasted three years.
Carries / FB Outsiders rank:
2017 - 268 (7th / 20.6) / 13th
2018 - 133 (only played 8 games / 16.6) / 21st
2019 - 265 (7th / 17.7) / 27th
A lot of carries behind a mediocre run-blocking line. Recipe for disaster.
Christian McCaffrey
The Eagles reportedly had interest in drafting CMC at 14 during this draft, but the Panthers pounced (hehe get it? Cats pounce? No don't X out) and grabbed him at 8. A first-round running back to be a part of a three-headed monster? Sounds like something the Eagles would be interested in.
The Panthers had the 25th-ranked run-blocking line going into the draft, it didn't get much better during CMC's Carolina career.
Carries/FB Outsiders:
2017 - 117 (40th / 7.3) / 25th
2018 - 219 (10th / 13.7) / 11th
2019 - 287 (4th / 17.9) / 17th
CMC was limited to 10 games between 2020-2021.
Saquon Barkley
Another "generational talent" at running back gone to a team that had many more needs than a running back. The Giants had the 15th ranked run blocking line in 2017, but severely needed depth. Eli Manning was on his last legs, although he played two more seasons, so a quarterback made sense as well. Not a running back at #4 overall.
Carries / FB Outsiders:
2018 - 261 (2nd / 16.3) / 29th
2019 - 217 (18th / 16.7) / 25th
2020 - two games
2021 - 162 (13 games / 12.5) / 31st
2022 - 295 (4th / 18.4) / 24th
All those carries behind a line that was more open than a 24/7 laundromat. Bijan Robinson in Philadelphia could yield very different results.
Rashaad Penny
It would be a waste of time to list all of Penny's carries as he has been injured most of his career. He is, however, on the precipice of a 2,000-yard season for the Eagles. Unless they draft Bijan.
The Seahawks decided to spend a first-round pick on a running back when their offensive line just came off a 31st-ranked season at run blocking.
During Penny's time they ranked:
2018 - 12th
2019 - 16th
2020 - 10th
2021 - 14th
2022 - 30th
2018-2021 can be attributed to Russell Wilson being their QB.
Could Rashaad Penny end up being teammates with Bijan Robinson in 2023?
Josh Jacobs
Another team who had major needs elsewhere, like replacing Khalil Mack, but decided to spend a first on a running back.
It's hard to complain about Jacobs' production but, since the Raiders are also incompetent, it hasn't led to much success for the team.
Carries / FB Outsiders
2019 - 242 (13th / 18.6) / 6th
2020 - 273 (3rd / 18.2) / 18th
2021 - 217 (11th / 14.5) / 17th
2022 - 340 (2nd / 20) / 1st
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
A lot of people were stunned at this pick. But tough to argue Andy Reid's non-challenge decisions.
CEH played 13 games his rookie year, 10 his second, and 10 this past season. He averaged 13.9 carries per game his rookie year and has seen that number tumble all the way down to 7.1 in 2022.
The Chiefs decided to forgo all of their defensive needs and draft a running back and also had the 28th ranked run-blocking offensive line in 2019.
FB Outsiders ranks:
2020 - 14th
2021 - 8th
2022 - 3rd
Najee Harris
One of the few teams on this list who actually needed a running back, but maybe not this high. Harris has been very good since entering the league, but he's on the fast track to worn out tires as we've seen with Ezekiel Elliot while being behind a worse offensive line. Going into the 2021 draft, the Steelers had the worst run-blocking offensive line.
Carries / FB Outsiders rank:
2021 - 307 (2nd / 18.1) / 28th
2022 - 272 (5th / 16) / 10th
While 2022 was a major jump up in blocking, the Steelers have spent a lot of money this offseason in their offensive line. Maybe they're finally looking to support their first-round pick.
As for the Eagles, they've already got that part nailed down and Jason Kelce's return in 2023 has set the ground-game up for another year of dominance. Is Bijan Robinson the missing piece?
Travis Etienne
The biggest head-scratcher of the entire list, but Urban Meyer was running the show so was it really a surprise?
The 2020 Jags had come off a second consecutive 1000-yard season from a running back (Fournette - 2019, Robinson - 2020) and had drafted their franchise quarterback first overall in the 2021 draft. Who comes in at 25th? Travis Etienne. He missed his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury suffered in the preseason and did come back in 2022 with a 1,125-yard season. Time will tell if he was worth the pick, but it's an extreme long shot.
Last season, Etienne had 220 carries (13th in the league / 12.9 attempts) behind an offensive line that was ranked 29th in run blocking.
The averages
If you take all the carries between the running backs outside of Ezekiel Elliott (and Penny due to his injuries) and their seasons where they played close to a full season, you get an average of 232.5 carries per season behind offensive lines that averaged a ranking of 16.9.
Where would 232.5 carries rank in each season analyzed?
2017 - 12th
2018 - 9th
2019 - 16th
2020 - 7th
2021 - 8th
2022 - 10th
Four seasons in the top ten in carries and all six in the top half of the league. In the grand scheme of things, 232.5 carries isn't that much. Across a now 17-game season, that averages to 13.67 attempts per game, which is less than all but four seasons listed above. However, all of these attempts were behind offensive lines that collectively averaged as a bottom-half run-blocking line. Doesn't seem to be a recipe for success.
The Nick Sirianni Effect
2018 - Marlon Mack 195 carries (12 games / 16.3 attempts) with 4th best run blocking line
2019 - Marlon Mack 247 carries (9th / 17.6 attempts) with 12th best run blocking
2020 - Jonathan Taylor 232 carries (8th / 15.5 attempts) with 20th best run blocking
2021 - Miles Sanders 137 carries (12 games / 11.4 attempts) with 4th best run blocking
2022 - Miles Sanders 259 carries (8th / 15.2 attempts) with 6th best run blocking
Nick Sirianni's offenses have four years of averaging more than the average number of carries listed above, but 2018-2021 were 16-game averages.
Miles Sanders' 2022 season was a career year in both attempts and yards, but his 15.2 attempts per game are inflated a bit due to three games over 20 carries and one of those being 27. If you take out those three outliers, Sanders averaged 13.57 attempts per game. Interesting average there!
In Mack's 2019 season, his best in his career, he had four games (out of 14 played) with over 20 carries. The other ten's average? 13.3.
If Sirianni's running backs aren't being "bell cows", they're averaging close to the same amount of attempts as you saw above.
So what does that mean for the Eagles and Bijan Robinson?
Bijan Robinson and Sirianni = Future BFFs
In 2022, Bijan Robinson carried the ball 20+ times in all but three games. His 16.5 attempts per game was a big jump from the 11.3 in 2021. Those worries about "tread on the tires" for a first round running back should feel some peace knowing that Robinson would be joining a head coach that knows how to utilize his running backs to the best of their ability and be the healthiest of their careers.
Bijan Robinson in Philadelphia would be a combination of the situation that Ezekiel Elliott found himself going to in 2016 and the low average of attempts we calculated in the last section. While we also saw some lines rank highly prior to drafting the running back only to tank in the ranks the following year or the year after, do you really think the Eagles' offensive line has any chance of doing that under Jeff Stoutland?
While taking a running back in the first round, let alone 10th overall, has its risks, those risks are minimal in Philadelphia.
Would you take Bijan Robinson at 10? Let us know in the comments!
Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire
