The Philadelphia Phillies will begin the 2026 season with seven players on expiring contracts. If fans thought the 2026 Phillies might look different from their 2025 squad, the shakeup in 2027 could be even more substantial.
Alec Bohm, Taijuan Walker, José Alvarado, Jesús Luzardo, Nick Castellanos, Edmundo Sosa, and Adolis Garcia represent a whopping $86.25 million coming off the books for the Phillies. For the upcoming season, the club’s payroll for luxury tax purposes is $301.5 million. That means the departure of all the aforementioned players would bring the Phillies' payroll to $215.25 million, well below the first tax threshold of $247 million.
Of course, the current CBA expires at the end of the 2026 season, and evaluators predict a lengthy lockout that offseason, so it’s impossible to predict what the state of the luxury tax will be going into 2027. For all we know, there could even be a salary cap and floor. However, the MLB Players Union aims to avoid that outcome at all costs.
Despite the new CBA conditions being currently ambiguous, we can still speculate on the outcomes of these players' tenures with the Phillies.
It’s strange to think that Bohm is the fifth-longest-tenured Phillie. Only Aaron Nola, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Zack Wheeler have been on the Major League roster longer than him.
Since 2023, speculation has run rampant that the club and players may be due for a breakup, either at the trade deadline or during the offseason, but Bohm and the front office can’t seem to quit each other.
Despite high expectations for the 2020 Rookie of the Year runner-up, Bohm’s career in Philadelphia has largely been a disappointment, at least given the expectations set for him. Nevertheless, he has transformed into a serviceable defensive third baseman and a slightly above-average hitter.
Though he won’t command a nine-figure deal in free agency, Bohm will undoubtedly have plenty of suitors willing to offer him starting jobs when he hits the open market. And with infielder Aiden Miller coming closer to a call-up, it seems like a divorce is inevitable between Bohm and Philadelphia.
If the 29-year-old infielder is still with the Phillies come Opening Day 2026, expect that to be his last one in red pinstripes.
Luzardo is the Phillies' most coveted item slated to hit free agency after 2026. Even though he’s never pitched a full season with an ERA below 3.58, front offices around the league are well aware of his true value.
Luzardo’s stuff is some of the nastiest in the league, and with 183.2 IP and 216 K’s in 2025, he’s set up for a dominant 2026. In fact, according to fWAR (which is FIP-based), Luzardo was the fourth-best pitcher in the National League last year.
His peripherals indicate one of the top pitchers league-wide, and strong traditional stats in 2026 will set Luzardo up for a nine-figure deal. The sooner the Phillies and Luzardo can come to an extension agreement, the better.
If he hits the free market, you can expect Luzardo to get a deal between Eduardo Rodriguez (4-year/$80 million) and Robbie Ray (5-year/$115 million), depending on how well he pitches in 2026. Those figures might be even higher given league-wide inflation over the last five years.
Sosa is perhaps the trickiest case of any of Philadelphia’s expiring contracts. If there were a sixth-man of the year award in baseball, Sosa would be an excellent candidate year in and year out. Unfortunately for the Phillies, though, there will be a bevy of clubs around the league willing to give Sosa a starting job.
With a $7.5 million salary for 2026, he’s one of the more expensive bench bats around the league right now. To the Phillies, though, he’s worth every penny of that contract, providing support for Trea Turner, Bryson Stott, and Alec Bohm should injury arise to any of them.
His career splits against righties might give teams pause when looking at Sosa for a starting job, though. His .680 career OPS against righties pales in comparison to his .798 OPS against lefties. Sosa is far better suited to a bench platoon than to an everyday role. The elite defense he offers might make up for that.
If the Phillies can come to a low-AAV, multi-year extension agreement with their soon-to-be 30-year-old Panamanian infielder this year, it could please both sides. Otherwise, Sosa is likely to find a starting role on a less competitive team in 2027.
The Phillies have placed a lot of faith in Alvarado over the years. From working past his command issues to overlooking his PED suspension and exercising his $9 million option for 2026, it seems like the club and player have a good relationship.
But despite Alvarado’s perceived dominance, he’s only had one truly great season in Philadelphia. Aside from 2023, when he posted a 1.74 ERA in just 41.0 IP, the 30-year-old lefty has never pitched to an ERA below 3.18 in Philadelphia, and his career playoff ERA in Philly is 4.50. Is it fair to say Alvarado has never lived up to his stuff?
It’s hard to project what Alvarado would get on the open market right now, given his PED suspension and his year-to-year volatility. A season like his 2023 campaign would set him up for a multi-year deal worth upwards of $35-40 million, but if Alvarado falters, he and the Phillies could come to terms on a one-year contract to rebuild his value.
Castellanos will not be a Phillie come Opening Day 2026. Unfortunately, the rifts between player and staff are just too deep, and Castellanos is not valuable enough of a player to overlook the strife.
It remains to be seen, though, how much of his contract will still be on the books this year. He’s owed $20 million, and given that the Phillies have already signed his replacement in Garcia and so heavily telegraphed the end of his tenure in Philadelphia, his market value is lower than zero.
Will a team like Miami or Pittsburgh pick up $5 million on his contract to outbid other suitors before he hits the open market? Possibly. At this stage, it might be just as likely that Castellanos is released before spring training and the Phillies eat his salary for the whole season.
Walker will not be a Phillie in 2027. We can be pretty confident in saying that he and Castellanos are the two worst free agent deals of Dave Dombrowski’s tenure in Philadelphia.
At the bare minimum, Walker ate innings at a league-average clip in 2023 and 2025. If he can do so again in 2026, perhaps a team in need of back-end rotation help would trade for him at the deadline.
Unfortunately, that seems unlikely. Walker’s peripherals were not good in 2025, indicating regression from a 4.08 ERA, and his xERA of 7.09 in 2024 was the lowest in the league. If Walker again works as the long man out of the bullpen, there’s a better path to build value, but he may be nearly as much a sunk cost as Castellanos at this point.
Garcia is the final expiring deal the Phillies have coming off the books in 2027, and given that he’s yet to put on a Phillies uniform outside a press conference, it’s impossible to evaluate him.
Garcia could end up being a World Series hero, or he could feud with management and fans. He could be an awful fit in Philadelphia, he could be perfect, or he might just be forgettable.
At the very least, looking back at all the players the Phillies have signed to one-year deals, Didi Gregorius is the only one who’s been re-signed under Dombrowski’s administration. So the precedent for a Garcia reunion in 2027 is not nil.
