Our Flyers writers look into their crystal balls to predict which player will be selected by the Kraken in next year's expansion Draft.
Ah, the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. A moment in time where the NHL will welcome another major market while every other franchise, including the Philadelphia Flyers, take their arrival personally. The Seattle Kraken will aim to take the most valuable player exposed from each franchise. That's reason enough for the rest of the league (aside from the Vegas Golden Knights) to dislike the newcomers.
The Philadelphia Flyers are a team that may lose an important player to Seattle. There are notable, young players both on offense and defense, who will become a casualty of the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. All the Kraken have to do is choose how they'll be a disturbance to the Flyers. First, here are a few provisions to consider the qualifications of players to be exposed during the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft:
Taking those provisions into consideration, here's a projected list of protected players from Philadelphia:
Every team (except the Vegas Golden Knights) must submit a protected list of players to the NHL before draft day.Either include a list of seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goaltender OR eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender.Players with a “no movement” clause must be protected if the player does not waive the clause.First and second-year professional players and unsigned draft picks are not eligible for the expansion draft and won’t need to be protected.Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous sixty consecutive games may not be used to satisfy a team’s player exposure requirements unless approval is received from the NHL.All other players are eligible for the expansion draft.The entire NHL will be put under a ‘roster freeze.’ No trades, no waivers until after Seattle’s roster is created.Protected lists are sent to all teams (except the Vegas Golden Knights,) and Seattle will be allowed to interview eligible playersSeattle must select one player from each current NHL team.The 30-man roster must include fourteen forwards, nine defensemen, and three goaltenders.Twenty players must be under contract for the 2021-22 season.Salaries of the players selected must combine to be between 60%-100% of the salary cap’s upper limit.
Forwards: Claude Giroux (NMC), Jake Voracek, Kevin Hayes (NMC), Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier, Oskar Lindblom, Scott LaughtonDefensemen: Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Phil MyersGoaltender: Carter Hart
Six of the seven forwards are clear locks for protection. The one outlier is Scott Laughton, who could be exposed if Nolan Patrick returns to true form. After Philippe Myers received his three-year extension, the future of the Flyers defense became clear. Finally, Carter Hart isn't going anywhere, especially after Philadelphia spent nearly twenty years searching for a franchise goaltender.
Two players who are marked as exempt for the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft on the Flyers roster are Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost. Both players will be in their second-year with Philadelphia. The Flyers luck out based on the timing of Seattle's arrival.
After all of this, what player will be plucked from Philadelphia by the Kraken?
Eric Reese (@EricReesePSN)
As much as Flyers fans want Seattle to help out by selecting James van Riemsdyk or Shayne Gostisbehere so a bad contract is off the books, the Kraken have no incentive to do that. The only way that sort of selection happens is if Philadelphia offers a draft pick or a prospect along with Gostisbehere or van Riemsdyk, which wouldn't be smart.
Of the forwards, Michael Raffl, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, and Nolan Patrick are appealing. Patrick is a curious case due to his migraine disorder history. Unless the NHL approves Patrick to be listed as an exposed player (he missed all of 2019-2020,) he may not be eligible because his migraines could be treated as a potentially career-ending injury. Seattle will likely focus on Aube-Kubel, who is eight-years younger than Raffl and costs $525k less.
On defense, Erik Gustafsson and Robert Hagg represent value. If the Kraken select Gustafsson, it is not the end of the world. The Flyers recover each forward in their deep talent pool and only lose a player who Fletcher signed to a one-year deal. If Seattle drafts Hagg, then Gostisbehere all of the sudden is a permanent fixture on the third pairing.
Stranger things have happened, but Seattle will likely torch Philadelphia for a forward. Fletcher has a decision to make if Patrick returns in 2020-2021 with a vengeance. Should he be protected instead of Laughton? Everything about Patrick is still uncertain, which means there is a chance the Kraken doesn't touch him. At this moment, knowing what we know about the Flyers, a safe selection by Seattle could land them Aube-Kubel.
Continued on the page below.
Photo Credit: Alex Mcintyre
Matt Stinger (@delco_dope)
As it stands right now, the Flyers will not have to protect either Joel Farabee or Morgan Frost, as they both fall into the category of first two year players. I'll start by giving my protection list:
Goaltender: Hart, (we can file this one under the DUH category) Defensemen: Provorov, Myers, SanheimForwards: Giroux (NMC), Hayes (NMC), Couturier, Konecny, Lindblom, Laughton, Aube-Kubel
So let's start with the forwards. If I am Chuck Fletcher, I am not protecting Voracek. That is nothing against Jake or his play, but Voracek who is 31 has the second-biggest contract on the team at $8.5 million AAV. He is signed through the 2023-2024 season.
Now, this is a risky move, as leaving Voracek unprotected could create a 56 point void out of the Flyers' top 6 forwards. However, freeing up that cap space could do wonders in Fletcher's flexibility in the future during free agency. As Eric said above, is Seattle really going to free the Flyers of JVR or Ghost's contract?
As for Patrick, he will most likely fall into the protected category. We are still not certain on his status and I doubt he will play the minimum 40 games this season to be considered eligible. I am going to carry him as ineligible.
As for the defensemen, I think this is a no-brainer. The only difference I could see is that Fletcher makes a move, trading Sanheim for a scorer. If that does happen, which I believe is highly unlikely, then I think they protect Braun.
My gut tells me that Seattle either takes a veteran player, either Braun of Voracek.
Ricky Amandeo (@Ricky_amandeo8)
If I had to guess, Seattle will definitely take a forward from Philly. With the talented depth that the Flyers have, there's going to be plenty of reason to believe that an important piece of their offense will be taken. As I wrote about back in April, For this expansion draft, the Flyers may not lose an elite player, however, it’s very likely that they lose someone more significant than Pierre-Édouard Bellemare.
Difficult decisions are going to be made for this draft. With the status of Oskar Lindblom and Nolan Patrick still up in the air, it’s uncertain if these guys will even be protected. For the sake of optimism, we’ll focus on those two being full-time contributors in 2020-2021. Patrick *could* ultimately fall into the “potential career-ending injury” clause in the rules too.
With all of this said, I'm looking at the Flyers packaging a pick for one with one of their older veteran guys. Packaging picks for players is not an unusual move, as we saw in the 2017 expansion. As much as I appreciate what Jake Voracek and James van Riemsdyk have done during the rebuilding era of Flyers' hockey, their contracts are getting in the way of potentially adding some scoring around the young guns. The Flyers have one of the youngest groups in the league and have proven that they are ready. If I were the Flyers, I'd tempt Seattle into taking one of those older veterans to lead and build chemistry among the new group in Seattle.
Continued on the page below.
Photo Credit: Alex Mcintyre
Liam Jenkins (@LiamJenkinsPSN)
The important thing to remember right now is that a lot of hockey lies between this article and the expansion draft. The other thing to remember is that by the time the expansion draft rolls around, contract pictures will change.
If Nolan Patrick not only returns to the ice, but returns to form, it's hard to see the team keeping Scott Laughton over the former #2 overall pick. If he doesn't, as Ricky mentions, there are other paths to retaining him and they'd need to be explored as he'd be the perfect low-risk, high-reward prospect for a new franchise.
James van Riemsdyk will cost the Flyers $7M next season, that's just $100k less than Kevin Hayes, making him the team's fourth-highest paid player. Banking on Seattle to come in and save the day when building a franchise is wishful thinking, and Voracek's $8.25M hit could be more appealing for them to take on. Whether or not the Flyers would be ready to risk parting ways with someone so influential to the locker room
Interestingly, both Sanheim (RFA) and Gustaffsson (UFA) will be free agents. This could be something worth watching given the shake-up that the blue-line has already seen this offseason. They have to protect all of their young talismans and ultimately, Justin Braun is the outlier.
He could well be on the bottom pairing this year and the Flyers have handed out one too many bad contracts to vets in my lifetime. He's also a standup guy, extremely solid in what he does, and provides a reliable force on the bottom-6 for a team who may not be inundated with star options by that point in the draft. They could do a lot worse than Braun and selecting him would make sense here.
Alex McIntyre (@alexemcintyre)
In the previously mentioned protection list, most fans would agree that, like Eric said, six of the seven listed are a lock. However, this means the Flyers are able to protect only one player out of a few guys that are ideal to keep around. Here, it is important to view what each player brings to the table, including prospects.
If you remove Nolan Patrick from your considerations, the two big names that could go either way are Scott Laughton and Nikolas Aube-Kubel. Patrick has a very important season of hockey before he can be included in this conversation. As far as Laughton and NAK, you have to ask do you protect a clutch goal scorer who can transition up and down the lineup in the event of an injury? Or do you protect the younger bottom-six playmaker who is tough as nails and has untapped potential?
In a perfect world, the Flyers get Nolan Patrick back in good health, they leave one of NAK or Laughton unprotected, but Seattle still sees the value in James Van Riemsdyk. However, 2020 has shown us that the world simply is not perfect and the Flyers will really need to sweeten the deal to make this happen. As far as protection goes, I'd like to see NAK on the protected list over Laughton merely because I feel Joel Farabee can fill Laughton's shoes and then some. I feel that NAK brings a different presence to the ice that will only benefit the Flyers as he gains NHL experience. He's a tough player who lays huge hits, and someone that will have the opposing team looking over their shoulder.
Where Seattle may see value in a guy like James Van Riemsdyk is a big-bodied former second overall pick now veteran player with playoff experience. He has a signature move in front of the net, has a history of being a good goal scorer, and when he's hot, he's a tough player to beat. However, his cap hit alone is enough to turn the idea sour. Then considering his recent production and injury history, his value drops that much further.
With the idealism that Seattle will take a forward, I think it is in Philly's best interest to make JVR look as valuable as possible and send him on the first flight out - even if it means packing up a pick or two.
Photo Credit: Alex Mcintyre
