It was the bottom of the eighth inning. The Phillies led the Brewers 4-2 in the final game of their three-game set, looking to avoid getting swept. After a four-inning start from Ranger Suarez, the Phillies bullpen had thrown three scoreless innings. Now, it was time for the back of the bullpen to do their job.
Manager Rob Thomson has his game plan set for how he wants to approach the final two innings. First, Jose Alvarado pitches a scoreless eighth inning. Then, Craig Kimbrel comes in for the save in the ninth. Trust two of your high-leverage veterans in their typical spots out of the bullpen. Seems simple enough, right? Until you look at the pair’s recent performances.
On Friday night, the Phillies were leading the Brewers 5-3 as Alvarado entered to pitch the bottom of the eighth. Allowing a lead-off single to start the inning, Alvarado quickly found himself in difficult waters, loading the bases with a walk with one out in the inning.
Alvarado then issued another walk, bringing in a run in the process. After striking out the following batter, a costly (and increasingly rare) error from Alec Bohm scored all three base runners, giving the Brewers the 7-5 lead to which they would hold onto in the top of the ninth. Though he only allowed one earned run on the day, Alvarado’s struggles and lack of command resulted in four runs and a loss.
Kimbrel, meanwhile, most recently pitched on Aug. 30. After allowing a base runner on a third strike wild pitch to start the inning, Kimbrel allowed three runs on the inning, blowing the save and giving the Angels the victory.
The Phillies’ other loss on the home stand came at the expense of Kimbrel as well. He walked the first two batters he faced in the top of the 10th inning against the Giants on Aug. 23. With the bases loaded, two runs scored on a single before the final run scored on a sacrifice fly double play to end the inning. The three runs would be all the Giants needed.
So, are Alvarado and Kimbrel running out of gas, or were these recent performances the worst we’ll get the rest of the way?
The answer may lie in their performances on Sunday afternoon.
With his sinker capping at 97.7 mph on the day, Alvarado got a strikeout to start off the inning strong. After Joey Wiemer reached on a throwing error, Victor Caratini strung a liner down the third base side. Edmundo Sosa made a diving stop, getting an out at second base on the play. With two down, Alvarado closed the inning out with a full count strikeout. Though he still threw a few of his trademark wild fastballs, Alvarado’s control issues were in check on the day.
Then, in the bottom of the ninth, came Kimbrel’s chance to earn a save. He caught Christian Yelich swinging on a 2-2 knuckle curve in the dirt for the first out of the inning. After a single, Kimbrel recorded his second out of the inning on a fly ball into right field. Kimbrel then quickly disposed of Carlos Santana on three pitches for the final out.
For Alvarado, Sunday’s success was one of four shutout performances since returning from the injured list. Kimbrel's story is similiar. Though he has allowed five earned runs in his past seven innings pitched, all five runs have come on the two outings mentioned above against the Angels and Giants.
The Phillies have a difficult dance to play right now. First, they obviously need to play some of their best baseball to ensure a playoff spot as well as home-field advantage in the Wild Card Round. However, they also cannot find themselves in a similar situation to last October when their pitching staff ran out of gas in the World Series. So, they need to balance winning now and preserving strength for the postseason.
One potential path is to rest some of their top arms if fatigue is creeping in. Looking at the recent performances of Alvarado and Kimbrel… it's a mixed bag. If they continue to do well, keep riding them. If not, give them rest now so that they will be ready in October. Gregory Soto is an automatic candidate for time off since he has the Phillies’ highest ERA over the past 30 days at 7.27.
But for Alvarado and Kimbrel, Thomson needs to be willing to sit either of them if they show signs of regression over the final month of action. There are other members of the bullpen such as Seranthony Dominguez and Matt Strahm who have logged quality innings over the past month and could fill in in the later innings as needed should either have issues.
