I won't even bring up last week.
The Eagles head North West (no not Kanye's daughter) to face the 5-1 Buffalo Bills.
While it won't be typical late October weather in Buffalo, it looks like it will be 60 degrees and rainy. Not ideal for an Eagles offense looking to get their passing offense fixed.
But before we get into that, let's look at what the Bills did in the offseason and so far this season.
Key additions:
Running back Frank Gore (free agency – Dolphins), Cornerback Kevin Johnson (free agency – Texans), Cornerback E.J. Gaines (free agency – Browns), Wide receiver Cole Beasley (free agency – Cowboys), Wide receiver John Brown (free agency – Ravens), Center Mitch Morse (free agency – Chiefs), Defensive tackle Ed Oliver (first round draft pick), Offensive Tackle Cody Ford (second-round draft pick), Running back Devin Singletary (third round draft pick)
Key departures:
Defensive tackle Kyle Williams (retirement), Tight end Charles Clay (released – signed with Cardinals), Running back LeSean McCoy (released - signed with Chiefs)
The Bills come into this game 5-1 and second in the AFC East. However, despite their record, Football Outsiders calls them the worst 5-1 team in history according to DVOA. Their ranking puts them with teams either .500 in record or below .500, not a good indicator of a strong 5-1 record.
Their wins this season have come against teams with a combined 6-27 record, while their lone loss has come against the 7-0 Patriots.
Against those abysmal opponents, their defensive has racked up the following ranks:
Yards per game: 3rd
Passing yards per game: 4th
Rushing yards per game: 10th
Their defensive ranks is no fluke. They have a tremendous defense. However, they might find it hard to have as much success against an Eagles team ready to show how explosive they are on offense.
On the flip side, the Bills offense has racked up the following ranks:
Yards per game: 17th
Passing yards per game: 21st
Rushing yards per game: 7th
That passing attack will have the ability to improve on those numbers against the Eagles' 27th ranked pass defense, but the Bills will have a tough time improving, or even reaching, that rushing total against the Eagles' seventh ranked rush defense.
Prior to the Cowboys game, the Eagles were ranked second in the league in rush defense. But after a 189 rushing performance by the Cowboys, that rank dropped to seventh.
Josh Allen has been Jekyll and Hyde this season when it comes to his offensive arsenal. Let's take a look.
Dr. Jekyll
When it comes to the passing offense, Allen has been as formidable as Dr. Jekyll. He only averages 220.7 passing yards per game and has seven touchdowns and seven interceptions.
His 62.43% completion rate ranks 20th among quarterbacks with 100 or more passing attempts (Wentz is 24th, but we won't mention the WR drops... 17 of them.. ok done). His QBR is 37.3, which is 29th out of 32 quarterbacks with 105 or more passing attempts.
We talked about DVOA previously and Allen's rank among those 32 quarterbacks is 27th. Simply put, his performance as a passing quarterback this season has not been good.
To give another metric of his performance, 68% of his passes 20 or more yards downfield have been deemed uncatchable by ProFootballFocus. This is the highest percentage in the league. Look for John Brown to speed passed the Eagles' defensive backs with ease on Sunday, but for Allen to overthrow him almost every time.
However....
Mr. Hyde
Allen's ability as a rushing quarterback is about as scary as Mr. Hyde. On 21 scrambles this season, Allen is averaging 6.4 yards per carry. These are not designed runs. A scramble is a run during a designed passing play. So once defenders get Allen out of the pocket, he's still scrambling for more than six yards.
That 6.4 average is down from his whopping 11.0 average in 2018, but it's still enough to extend drives. Given the Eagles' 15th ranked third down defense, this can be a key factor in the Bills' offensive drives.
While the Eagles are 1-1 when a quarterback rushes for 30 yards or more this season, it's the drive extending runs that decimate this defense. It's the 3rd and 7 scramble that turns a 3 and out into an eight minute drive. Allen has the ability to wear out the Eagles defense on one drive with his legs.
No Fly Zone
With all of the previous talk about Josh Allen, more should be said about the Bills' passing defense.
ProFootballFocus currently ranks them as the fourth best unit in man coverage. They've only allowed 19 first downs on 59 targets this season and linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano have been key components of that.
Last week, Tre'Davious White was targeted five times and only allowed one completion. He also added his third interception of the year and has not allowed a touchdown this season.
The Eagles' passing attack has not been great this season, with the wide receivers leading the league in dropped passes. In a rainy and windy (20-30 MPH forecast) environment on the road, it doesn't look likely the Eagles will find success through the air.
For some history and predictions, move on to the next page!
Mandatory Photo Credit: AP Photo/Ron Schwane
History
The Eagles and Bills have faced each other 13 times in their history. The Eagles lead the series 7-6. The last time they faced each other was in 2015, with the Eagles winning 23-20.
Predictions
In the last game versus the Bills, Darren Sproles was the leading rusher with 41 yards. The Eagles will need better production from the rushing attack if they want a chance to win. I believe that Doug Pederson will turn to his rushing attack more this game to set up the play action, instead of drop backs that immediately show the deep passing game plan. But look for the Eagles run through a rain soaked field to a hard fought win 20-13.
Stat line predictions:
Wentz: 17/22 190 yards
Howard: 15 rushes for 60 yards, one touchdown
Sanders: 16 rushes for 48 yards, one touchdown
Scott: 8 rushes for 35 yards
Jeffery: 5 receptions for 60 yards
Ertz: 3 receptions for 30 yards
Agholor: 3 receptions for 25 yards
Barnett: two sacks
Graham: two sacks
James: Int
McLeod: Int
Last week's predictions (actual stat line in parenthesis):
Wentz: 23/34 for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns (16/26 191 yards and one touchdown and one interception)
Sanders: 10 rushes for 44 yards (6 rushes for 21 yards)
Howard: 14 rushes for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns (11 rushes for 50 yards)
Jeffery: 7 catches for 90 yards and one touchdown (2 catches for 38 yards)
Agholor: 4 catches for 50 yards and one touchdown (2 catches for 24 yards)
Ertz: 5 catches for 50 yards (2 catches for 38 yards)
Graham: sack (no)
Barnett: two sacks (one sack)
Mills: Int (yes!)
Mandatory Photo Credit: AP Photo/Ron Schwane
