Since the moment he put on a Philadelphia Phillies uniform, Kyle Schwarber has been a home run signing.
Schwarber has ushered in a new era of Phillies baseball. In his tenure with the organization, the club has made the playoffs in each of his four seasons. A trip to the World Series and two trips to the National League Championship Series are a testament to the leader Schwarber has been on and off the field. His 187 home runs are the 12th most in franchise history, despite playing nearly half the number of games as those in the top 10.
Coming off a season in which Schwarber finished second in MVP voting, his free agency market is rumored to be hot. The expectation from experts in the field is that Schwarber will land a five-year contract north of $150 million. There is a strong likelihood that the Phillies will find themselves in a bidding war for their former designated hitter.
With his future in Philadelphia in doubt, the club must also be involved in other markets. They need an insurance policy if their best hitter from a season ago walks out the door. I, however, believe that the Phillies are viewing this off-season through the wrong lens.
Former Houston Astro and Chicago Cub Kyle Tucker is the best player available in free agency. Despite being the best player, the market for Tucker is not as active as you might expect.
Tucker has fewer suitors than Schwarber, for instance, due to the caliber of contract he is expected to sign. Experts have listed his next contract to start in the $400 million range. This contract will likely have a 10-12-year designation attached to it, meaning whoever signs Tucker will have him for the next decade (barring opt-outs).
If the Phillies are going to pony up for Schwarber, they might as well keep pushing and pursue Tucker. In terms of average annual value (AAV), Schwaber will probably settle in the $30-million range. Tucker will be about $10 million higher annually.
While it is simple to advocate for signing the more expensive player, there is tremendous value that Tucker holds over Schwarber. For one, Tucker can play either corner outfield position, whereas Schwarber is only a designated hitter.
Tucker is a far better baserunner than Schwarber. His 25 stolen bases last season to Schwarber’s career high of 10 is quite the contrast. He also has a more contract-driven approach. Tucker has never exceeded 100 strikeouts in any season of play. Schwarber struck out 809 times across his four seasons in Philadelphia.
To be fair to the Phillies’ DH, Schwarber’s ability to hit the ball out of the park far exceeds Tucker's. The MVP runner-up is nearly guaranteed to hit near 40 home runs a season. Tucker falls more in the 25-30 range but also hits in the high 20s and low 30s regarding doubles.
Another key factor in deciding between these two players is age. Schwarber will be 33 years old when Opening Day arrives in late March. Tucker will be 29 years old.
If Philadelphia inks Schwarber to a 5-year deal, he will be playing his final season under that contract at 38 years of age. If they sign Tucker to the expected 10-12-year deal, he would finish his deal around 39-41 years old. What you are getting in a contract for the former Astro is essentially four additional years of a player’s prime.
The club does have three players under contract through 2030. Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, and Bryce Harper will all be under contract deep into their careers.
A move for Tucker would add another player to that mix. However, as previously mentioned, you are paying for his prime seasons in a contract of this nature.
The Phillies are in on both of these players at this point in free agency. Until a top player signs, you can assume the Phillies have an idea of their market and have talked to the player’s representatives.
We know they have a good relationship with Schwarber. Both sides want to continue what has been four excellent years together. Off the field, Schwarber’s foundation, Schwarber’s Neighborhood Heroes, gives back to first responders and their families in the Philadelphia region. This impact cannot be summarized by a dollar amount on a contract.
Everyone loves Kyle, and he has told anyone willing to listen that he loves Philly. The reunion between both sides can and will be great for all parties involved.
Until the ink is dry, we do not know what the future holds. If I had to guess, I would expect Schwarber to be in the Phillies’ lineup come Opening Day.
However, the Phillies have an opportunity to get one of baseball’s best players in the prime of his career. Adding Tucker to a 96-win ballclub could continue the next generation of Philadelphia Phillies baseball.
