If you’ve read the title of and clicked on this piece, I know what you’re probably thinking by now. “There’s no way the Phillies shouldn’t pursue Cole. He’s the top starter on the market and our pitching stunk last year!”
Truthfully, the Phillies pitching staff was severely underwhelming last
season. The unit recorded an abysmal 4.64 ERA in 2019 and boasted only
one starter- Aaron Nola- that finished with 10+ wins and a sub-4.00 ERA.
Still, as lousy as the pitching was last year for the Phils, I believe it
would behoove them to sit out the Cole sweepstakes. Or at the very least
not put it atop their priority list.
Cole, of course, was dominant in 2019. En route to a 20-5 record with
the AL champion Astros, Cole posted a 2.50 ERA and a league-best 326
strikeouts across 212 1⁄3 innings. His performance earned him his second
consecutive All-Star selection and third overall. It was also his second
straight campaign in which he recorded 15+ wins and recorded a sub-3.00
ERA.
So why should the Phillies not prioritize him this winter, exactly?
For starters, Cole is expected to be on the receiving end of perhaps
the richest contract in league history amongst MLB insider circles. Though he
has certainly earned every dime of whatever contract he is awarded this
offseason, the Phillies shelling out a record-breaking contract for the second
year in a row doesn’t bode too well for their financial situation moving
forward. Doing so with Bryce Harper last year, who was not only 26-years
old at the time but a generational athlete in the sport, made a ton of sense
for the Phillies as they ensured he spends the entire prime of his career in
the City of Brotherly Love.
2019 AL Cy Young runner-up Gerrit Cole, however, is already 29-years
old and will be 30 by the end of the first year of his next contract. While he
could certainly continue to be productive in his 30s, pitchers don’t typically
have quite the shelf life that outfielders have.
In addition to age and career-length expectancy, Cole’s agent Scott
Boras has “indicated” to teams that his prized pitching client is unlikely to
ink a new deal before January, according to Andy Martino of SNY. While
Boras could easily be using one of his famed negotiating tactics in an
attempt to hike up the price for Cole, he’s also not known for his bluffing and
it wouldn’t be the first time a premier player waited until deep in the
offseason to sign a deal, à la Jake Arrietta.
As nice as it would be to acquire Cole, the Phillies simply can’t afford
to lose out on other options waiting around for Cole to make a decision. And
unlike last year when they had the bankroll available to wait around for
Harper to seek greener pastures elsewhere, the Phillies only have roughly
$50M to play with this winter. They’d be much better-served signing, say,
Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels early in the offseason instead of potentially losing out on both trying to end the offseason with a splash signing of Cole. Heck, the team could even pursue fellow front-end starter Stephen Strasburg, whose market is likely to develop much faster, over the aforementioned Cole.
Also, to be clear, I’m not insinuating that the Phillies shouldn’t be interested in Cole at all. They should be after his services just like the other 29 teams in the league. I’m simply stating that their offseason shouldn’t be centered around the talented hurler. If they ultimately acquire him, awesome! But that should be on top of whatever other starters they acquire this winter because the team simply can’t afford to run with the unproductive Nick Pivetta-Vince Velasquez-Jerad Eickhoff triumvirate at the back end of their rotation again.
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
