This feels all too familiar for the Philadelphia Phillies, and in the best way possible. For the Arizona Diamondbacks, they're coming in as the underdogs and there's no doubt that the fans at Citizens Bank Park will let them forget that.
Two Wild-Card teams defeated their in-division rivals to make their way to the National League Championship Series. The teams are playing their best baseball and reached this year's NLCS for a reason.
Don't forget, these two teams have met before in the regular season. The Diamondbacks did take two of three at Citizens Bank Park from May 22-24, winning 6-3 and 4-3 before the Phillies avoided the sweep. Then in June, they lost the opener despite J.T. Realmuto hitting for the cycle before sweeping the last three games, including one of them in ten innings.
These two teams have never met in the postseason. So what can we expect in this NLCS? Will the Phillies win the pennant for the second consecutive year, or will the Diamondbacks keep surprising everyone and make it to the World Series to face one of the two Texas teams?
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) hits a solo homer against the Atlanta Braves during the sixth inning of Game 1 of a baseball NL Division Series, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Atlanta.AP Photo/Brynn AndersonPhillies lineup should be feared
The Phillies have spent the past two days crafting a plan for their strategy against the Diamondbacks. That included meetings with the club’s scouts who have been watching Arizona for weeks. Waiting in the grass, watching how the Diamondbacks slither around (please excuse all the snake jokes).
Describing what the Phillies bring to the field in two words is easy: vibes and stars.
The 2023 roster seems like the perfect recipe to be "That Team" to win the whole thing this year. It's almost as if someone in a lab knew the type of arms and hitters needed to make a successful postseason run. Their lineup is deep. Their bullpen can be scary good. They have at least three guys, maybe four, they will use in a massively important series.
And that lineup should be fear into the hearts of Arizona. Returning from Tommy John surgery early, Bryce Harper regained his power stroke and to end the regular season, he was slashing .299/.425/.641 with 16 homers. Newcomer Trea Turner, post-standing ovation Trea, hit .339/.391/.677 with 16 homers over his final 47 games. Add in postseason stars Nick Castellanos and JT Realmuto and this is a power-hitting team.
Their 19 best players are better than the Diamondbacks'. The Phillies had seven players hit 15 or more homers this season. They've got brute strength but that sometimes comes at the cost of their defense. Philadelphia also needs to run, run, run. They're good at stealing bases, taking 22 bases in 25 attempts in the final 15 games of the 2023 season.
For Arizona, they're not coming empty-handed. They set an MLB postseason record with four home runs in one inning on third-inning solo dingers by Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Gabriel Moreno.
Corbin Carroll has been on a hot streak. As their go-to lead-off man, he crushed 24 homers and swiped 54 bases. In the postseason, he's posted up a .412/.565/.824 line with two homers and two steals. Walker also is a good middle-of-the-lineup guy, with 33 homers and 103 RBI in the regular-season show.
The Diamondbacks have the ability to make life tough for the Phillies' pitchers that they're going to face. Marte is slashing .276/25 HR/82 RBI and adding in Lourdes Gurriel, who is hitting .261/24/82. This is not a team to underestimate at the plate, they're a formidable opponent. This is an Arizona team just two years removed from a 110-loss season.
Arizona Diamondbacks' Christian Walker (53) celebrates his home run with teammate Lourdes Gurriel Jr. during the third inning in Game 3 of a baseball NL Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Oct. 11, 2023, in Phoenix.AP Photo/Ross D. FranklinBring on the pitchers
Pitching is going to be the marquee part of this NLCS. Here are the projected pitchers for the series:
Game 1: Zack Wheeler (1-0, 2.08 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (2-0, 3.18 ERA)
Game 2: Aaron Nola (2-0, 1.42 ERA) vs. Merrill Kelly (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Game 3: Ranger Suarez vs. Brandon Pfaadt (0-0, 3.86 ERA)
Game 4: TBD
Game 5: If necessary, TBD
Game 6: If necessary, TBD
Game 7: If necessary, TBD
The one-two punch of Wheeler and Nola is going to be a tough nut to crack for Arizona. Granted, those two were sixth and 20th respectively in the league in terms of pitchers. But taking a look at a different set of stats, the duo was first and seventh.
Wheeler is going to be on the mound with a solid two days of extra rest. He's their ace, fitting to start him in Game 1, and starting against Gallen is getting the series off to a bang. Both Zac(k)s have put up respectable numbers in the postseason but Wheeler is dominant in October. It'll be a homecoming for Gallen, having grown up and played baseball in South Jersey.
Nola is Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde, a Cy Younger contender when he's good but a pitching liability when he's struggling. October Nola is doing well. In his two starts, he's pitched 12.2 innings with 2 earned runs, 12 strikeouts, and two walks. The D-back's Kelly is a reliable number-two starter who is less clunky in his starts.
The Phillies also have an edge with their bullpen. They've been lucky enough not to have to overuse their arms and they're seven deep with guys who can throw 96+ with breaking balls. And for Games 4 and 5, the bullpen can remain just for that. The Phils still have Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez they can use and both are experienced.
Arizona's bullpen has also been on point during their postseason run. But they'll run into a challenge for Game 4, which might end up being a bullpen game for them. The D-backs bullpen has a 1.77 ERA this postseason and a lot of that is thanks to the pitching coach Brent Strom. The seven-game series with rest days will test Arizona.
Who will face Texas?
Texas will be the opponent in the World Series: either the Rangers or the Houston Astros. Philadelphia is on a roll, the momentum is hard to deny. Fans at Citizens Bank Park are going to bring the energy that they saw in the NLDS. Arizona might not be rattled (get it) to their core but they're going to have a hard time ignoring the factor that home-field advantage is going to play into this series.
Arizona is riding a different kind of high. They're looking for their first World Series appearance in 22 years. They made light work of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Philly sent Atlanta back to the land of Waffles Houses, making the NL East division winners just watch from the couch.
It's going to be a fun series, just a reminder to not mess with the Phanatic.
