The primary storyline of the Philadelphia Phillies' first half is Don Mattingly.
Whatever your thoughts on the firing of Rob Thomson — whether it came too early or too late, deserved or undeserved — it’s impossible to argue that the change hasn’t been a resounding success.
We all know the details at this point.
Mattingly has managed the team to a 45-24 record since taking over at 9-19 and found himself in pole position for National League Manager of the Year.
He’s leaned heavily on his superstars to get the job done.
The Phillies had six players representing the city at this year’s All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park. They could have seven players there if Zach Wheeler didn’t turn down the offer to be a replacement.
Wheeler said he felt like he was “disrespected” and didn’t want to be treated like a “fifth option.”
— Cole Weintraub (@WeintraubCole) July 11, 2026
Between those seven players, Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Jhoan Duran, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and Kyle Schwarber, they have accrued 22.1 wins above replacement.
The rest of the team, in its entirety, has managed -0.1 WAR.
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The Phillies have a problem. They have players performing at the top of their roster, but throughout the first half, they have lacked depth to a catastrophic degree. They are 19-6 in one-run games, thanks in large part to Duran, but they’re 4-8 in games decided by more than eight runs.
The run differential, often an indicator of future success, is -10, lower than the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, and even the lowly Detroit Tigers.
There simply hasn’t been enough production from the bottom of the lineup or back of the rotation. Even the bullpen, which had been strong to begin the 2026 campaign, has a 5.21 ERA since the beginning of June.
Despite all that, the Phillies have the 5th most wins in Major League Baseball. Their formula, however flawed, has worked.
Justin Crawford, who found himself in a tremendous hole after a dreadful 1-for-29 stretch in May, is hitting .313 since the beginning of June.
Trea Turner has slowly begun to turn his season around with home runs in three straight games when the calendar flipped to July. He’s slashing .295/.333/.442 since July 17.
Bryson Stott, too, has performed to a high standard with a .761 OPS since May began.
Even J.T. Realmuto, whose best years are behind him, is vastly underperforming his expected statistics. His .284 wOBA should regress toward his league-average .313 xwOBA in the second half.
CLEAR 'EM! pic.twitter.com/9b5UogUhj9
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 12, 2026
Help is coming for the Phillies in the second half, both internally and without. Whether Phillies president Dave Dombrowski acquires superstar talent or not at the trade deadline, the bats are starting to awaken from a months-long slumber.
Perhaps Alan Rangel is the answer to Philadelphia’s elusive fifth starter question, and Aaron Nola can build upon two strong starts back-to-back in Kansas City and Detroit.
Perhaps Jonathan Bowlan can solidify the back end of the bullpen with Orion Kerkering, Brad Keller, and Duran, though Dombrowski will certainly be looking for left-handed relievers this month. Perhaps Alec Bohm can find an offensive spark during a contract year.
The Phillies have holes in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen. The fact that they have performed so well given those deficits speaks volumes to the team’s resilience. When the inevitable deadline acquisitions do join the Phillies later this summer, and the team’s flaws are nullified—even if only partially—the team has demonstrated that they have the requisite tools to push deep into October.
Schwarber leads MLB with 32 home runs following an explosive first half. If he continues his current pace, his end-of-season statistics will look remarkably the same as his 2025 figures. However, Schwarber’s swing-and-miss has been even more prolific than his power this year.
Leading the league with 144 strikeouts at the break, he’s on pace to blow past Mark Reynolds’ all-time single-season record of 225 by more than 15 K’s.
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Since Sanchez’s scoreless streak ended on June 3, his ERA has been a gaudy 4.50. It hasn’t taken the lanky lefty out of the Cy Young race entirely, but it has relegated him away from the frontrunner position.
In his stead, Wheeler has risen. The two-time Cy Young runner-up is now second in NL ERA (min. 90 IP). Though his statistics are not quite in spitting distance of Jacob Misiorowski’s 1.62 ERA and 13.5 K/9, Wheeler is trending up.
Over his last seven starts, he’s struck out 12.8 per nine for a 1.91 ERA. In three June starts alone, Wheeler has matched his full-month strikeout totals in May and June.
Watch out Miz, Wheeler might be closer to that elusive Cy Young than he appears.
Though Brad Lidge’s perfect season is now out of reach after Duran blew a save in Toronto back in June, he could very well author the single best relief season in Phillies history.
The 28-year-old fireballer is on pace for 40 saves, the Phillies’ single-season record is 45, set by Jose Mesa in 2002. If Duran had avoided the injury that cost him more than three weeks in April, you’d have to imagine Mesa might be getting nervous.
And even if Duran doesn’t break that record in 2026, he’s nearly one-third of the way to the Phillies career saves total after less than one full season in Philly.
Stott has been dogging the career stolen-base success-rate (min. 100 attempts) leaderboard for almost two years. His 88.6% mark sits just behind Byron Buxton’s 90.5% for third all-time.
Stott is 17-for-17 this year in stolen base attempts. If he can author a perfect season on the base paths and Buxton can be thrown out just a few more times, Stott may finish 2026 atop the all-time leaderboard.
It’s basically McGwire and Sosa in 1998.
