It has been no secret that the Phillies’ offense has gotten off to a significantly sluggish start to the season. Entering Thursday, the Phillies owned the second-worst batting average (.220) across Major League Baseball.
There have been signs, however, that the Phillies just might be ready for a turnaround. Interim manager Don Mattingly believes so. Let’s take a look at the signs that a turnaround might be in the cards for the Phillies.
One of the advantages of the core of the Phillies’ lineup remaining the same for the past several years is that you can look back at the last several years of play as a good litmus test for where the team stands. From 2023-2025, the Phillies’ offense has consistently hit right around .257 as a collective.
Batting average may not be the most comprehensive statistic to evaluate a team by, but it does provide a good pulse check. If an offense is clicking, their average is likely to be higher. But batting average has a related statistic that may tell a deeper story: BABIP.
Batting average on balls in play, simply put, removes strikeouts and home runs while adding back in sacrifice flies. If a player hit the ball into the field of play, it counts towards BABIP. The Phillies’ BABIP typically sits around .306 as a team. They are currently at .261 as a team.
With their ground-ball and fly-ball rates largely in line with previous seasons, the Phillies’ low BABIP suggests at least part of their slow start may be tied to poor fortune rather than a broken offensive approach.
After the Phillies’ 7-0 victory over the Giants on Tuesday, Mattingly mentioned how he has been feeling the turnaround coming.
“You feel this coming, right?” Mattingly said post-game. “Been around long enough to feel the last game in Chicago, the fight. The games in Atlanta, we had a chance to win two out of three there… Our at bats were competitive. We didn't just give in and start swinging. So this has been coming.”
Since the last game in Chicago on April 23, the Phillies are averaging 5.4 runs per game, two runs more than they had been averaging to that point.
A lot of the offensive turnout early on has been from the top three of the lineup: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber. Turner just hit his 10-year service time milestone on Thursday while Schwarber is one home run shy of 350 on his career. The veteran triumvirate should be the ones leading the team, but they need support.
Adolis García is beginning to turn it around after a rough start, going 6-for-18 over the last five games. Brandon Marsh, the longest tenured outfielder on the roster, is 7-for-18. Marsh is set to get another chance at hitting against lefties under Mattingly.
One huge relief for the Phillies will be the lighter schedule coming up. They are beginning what will be a stretch of 12 games in 11 days, but those games will be against the Giants, Marlins, Athletics, and Rockies. Coming off series against the red-hot Cubs and Braves, the Phillies might be able to take advantage of their lighter schedule and use it as a lynchpin to jumpstart the offense.
The Phillies do not need to become an offensive juggernaut overnight. They need the balls they are already putting in play to start finding grass, and they need the bottom half of the lineup to give Turner, Harper and Schwarber some help.
The signs of a turnaround are there. Now comes the opportunity.
The signs are there that the offense will turn things around, but if they are going to do so, it’s gotta be May.
