The crowd at Citizens Bank Park rose to its feet as Kyle Schwarber stepped to the plate with two outs and the score knotted at three in the bottom of the ninth on June 9, 2023. With their most prolific slugger at the dish, the energy at the ballpark grew to a crescendo; the fans had seen this story play out before.
The Philadelphia Phillies had hit 14 walk-off home runs since 2018. So when Schwarber drove a Caleb Ferguson cutter off his own face on the auxiliary scoreboard in right field, the total became 15. More than three years later, that figure remains inert.
Across 280 plate appearances when the Phillies have had a chance to hit a walk-off home run since that evening in 2023, they have slashed .253/.293/.283.
Around Major League Baseball, home runs are nearly twice as common as ground-ball double plays. The Phillies, existing in a state of perpetual torment, have hit 10 GIDPs since they last hit a walk-off home run when the chance has presented itself.
For half a decade, mediocre Phillies teams circled the bases against opposing closers with alarming regularity. Bryson Stott, Garrett Stubbs, Luke Williams, Brad Miller, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Scott Kingery, Bryce Harper, Sean Rodriguez, Maikel Franco (twice!), Jean Segura, Asdrubal Cabrera, Andrew Knapp, and Trevor Plouffe all became walk-off home run heroes.
Some of those stars shone more brightly than others. Luke Williams became the first player to ever hit a walk-off home run in his first Major League start, while Sean Rodriguez may have become the first player to be booed at home the next day when he made derisive comments about the tenor of Philadelphia fans in his post-game interview.
Where have these champions of the city been during the Phillies' long walk-off home run drought?
Since 2023, the Phillies have hit home runs at a 3.3% clip per PA. If we extrapolate that out across 280 plate appearances, then there is approximately a 1 in 12,048 chance (or 1 in 6,622 if we factor out intentional walks) that Citizens Bank Park would not have seen a walk-off home run since 2023.
From this we can draw only one conclusion: the Phillies are cursed.
The Phillies sold their collective souls for their miracle 2022 postseason run. Schwarber’s game-ending longball the following summer was a mere gasp against the futility that this ballclub may never again hit a walk-off home run, a Ruthian slugger rebelling against terms divined by the baseball gods.
The deal, naturally, does not include games away from the hallowed grounds of Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have hit 10 go-ahead home runs in the 9th inning or later when on the road; they’ve also hit five go-ahead home runs in the 8th inning at home following June 9, 2023.
Since that date, a number of nigh-improbable events have been performed on the grass at Citizens Bank Park. Later in 2023, Michael Lorenzen threw MLB’s 322nd no-hitter, Weston Wilson and Bryce Harper completed the league’s 347th and 351st cycles, Schwarber had the 21st 4-home run game in MLB history, and Christopher Sanchez authored a 50.2 IP scoreless streak, the longest ever by a left-hander.
When the odds have forever been against Philadelphia, the Phillies have found other ways to defy them.
