Paul George is set to return to the Sixers Wednesday night against the Chicago Bulls. With 10 games left in the season, how will Philadelphia fare in this final stretch?
The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot to play for in these final few weeks of the regular season. They currently find themselves in a six-team logjam for seeds 5-10 in the Eastern Conference. If they close the season strongly, they have a very good chance of avoiding the Play-In Tournament and locking themselves into an actual playoff spot. That would almost guarantee a first-round date with the New York Knicks or Cleveland Cavaliers.
At the very least, they want to make sure they finish no worse than eighth. That will give them two chances to solidify their playoff positioning and at least one guaranteed home game to do so. If they are a Play-In team, they would most likely end up playing the Detroit Pistons or Boston Celtics in the first round.
The odds of lottery luck striking twice for the Sixers are slim, and anywhere their pick falls outside of the top four in the draft will convey to the reigning NBA Champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, so the best course of action is to make the playoffs and see what happens. Letting VJ Edgecombe experience playoff basketball is arguably the most realistic and important outcome the Sixers have left to shoot for.
As Paul George returns from suspension and takes the floor on Wednesday, the Sixers hold a 39-33 record. Assuming Embiid and Oubre can return before the calendar flips to April, and Maxey's return hopefully at the beginning of April, the Sixers have a real chance to gain some positive momentum en route to the playoffs.
Their schedule is going to pose some challenges. Six of the Sixers' remaining 10 games are against teams with winning records, and their immediate two games after the Bulls game Wednesday are on the road against teams they are battling directly with to avoid the Play-In: the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat.
They will also play host to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Detroit Pistons, and head down to Texas to play the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets. The Sixers need to take advantage of their games against the Bulls, Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Milwaukee Bucks to set themselves up with the best chance to have the outcomes from other teams not matter as much. They have been beating the teams they should have recently, and that trend needs to continue if they are going to make the playoffs.
Forecasting how the Sixers actually will fare in the final 10 games needs some added context. If their timeline for good health is accurate, winning six of the final 10 should be the expectation, with a chance for more.
Paul George and VJ Edgecombe should be enough to beat the Bulls at home, even if they do not get more reinforcements. Then come the two pivotal games with Charlotte and Miami. Beating either or both without any extra help is going to be difficult, but not impossible. They probably will end up splitting those two games, but if they win both, they will have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both teams and give themselves a great chance to end in the top six of the conference.
When the calendar turns to April, they have an easy one against the Washington Wizards, who will probably be without both Trae Young and Anthony Davis. If all goes according to plan, Tyrese Maxey could be the final piece to return and make the Sixers whole going into their final tough stretch of the season.
They get the Timberwolves at home on the second night of a back-to-back with travel for Minnesota. Then the Sixers get the Pistons, still at home, but now a second night of a back-to-back for them. Anthony Edwards will most likely be back for Minnesota at that point, and looking for revenge after the Sixers beat them in their house, and Tyrese Maxey delivered an epic poster on his head. But there is a good chance Cade Cunningham is still out for Detroit with his recently diagnosed collapsed lung. That is something the Sixers have to take advantage of. Both are winnable, but splitting the two is a fine outcome.
Then comes the Texas trip. The Sixers probably will still be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, trying to get into the top six. The Spurs may not have anything to play for at this point, likely already being locked into the No. 2 seed in the West. Maybe the Sixers can get a win over a resting Spurs team, but if they play their guys, it will probably be a loss.
The Rockets are the first night of a back-to-back for the Sixers, who then travel up to Indiana. While all of these games are important, the Sixers need to make sure they do not wind up on the losing end of both games by expending too much energy down in Houston. They will probably lose to the Rockets before beating the Pacers. And the final game of the year should be a relatively easy win against a Bucks team that should not be playing Giannis.
The schedule is ripe for the Sixers to stack some wins and get some good vibes going before the playoffs. Getting their guys back from injury and, hopefully, getting lucky to face some teams without their best players is a good formula for the Sixers to reach 45 wins, which should be enough to clear the Play-In line.
