Over the next two weeks, the Sixers will be forced to make several decisions that will drastically affect their future in the short and potentially long term.
The NBA's trade deadline is set for Thursday, Feb. 5, and once again, Philadelphia finds themselves as one of the more interesting situations across the league. Beginning the year wrapped in uncertainty, the Sixers have performed above expectations for a number of reasons.
Former MVP Joel Embiid has regained something reminiscent of his All-Star years—far quicker than expected, it's worth noting; something that many thought was impossible less than three short months ago.
Tyrese Maxey, known for exceeding expectations, has done so once again, as many questioned his ability to operate as a true alpha on a winning team. Not every moment has been perfect, but the 25-year-old has been named an All-Star for the second time in his career and for the first time, a starter, after receiving more votes than any other American player, and anyone not named Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic or Luka Doncic.
Paul George’s journey back to form has remained in a state of ebb and flow, but his defensive commitment has helped lead the Sixers to become a top 10 defense in the NBA, particularly in defensive rating, opponent three-point attempts, and opponent three-point shooting percentage.
Then there are the surprises of the season.
Not just rookie sensation VJ Edgecombe, who appears far further ahead of schedule than Philadelphia could have hoped when they selected him with the third overall pick in last year’s NBA Draft. While Edgecombe’s early developments have been more than welcome and give confidence in the Sixers’ back court for potentially the next decade, there’s been an arguably more welcome surprise in perhaps the most unlikely of places, which is where the story of Philadelphia’s upcoming plans truly begins.
It’s no well-kept secret that the Sixers are currently mulling their options for two of their players currently on two-way contracts. Domnick Barlow has started in over 90 percent of the games he’s played this season, about as clear an indicator as can be of how this team values him.
Converting Barlow to a standard NBA deal is a certainty for the Sixers, beyond even Thanos-levels of inevitability. It’s just a matter of timing, but more on that shortly.
Slightly less so, but still a focus for Philadelphia is forward Jabari Walker. Like Barlow, Walker has exceeded initial expectations and has become an interesting player for the Sixers largely due to his ability to impact the game beyond traditional counting stats. Walker’s relentless effort and motor have been noticed and are appreciated by Philadelphia, from the players to the coaching staff and even above. The team would ideally like to convert him to a standard deal, as they plan to do with Barlow, though that move would be secondary and could ultimately come down to a counting game over the number of standard contracts on the Sixers’ roster. It's not that Walker is guaranteed to be second-fiddle when it comes to receiving a standard deal; he may very well be converted first, but the priority to Philadelphia is Barlow.
So the team is looking to convert Barlow and Walker to standard NBA contracts. Great, but when?
Great question.
The Sixers have four games left of two-way availability while under 15 players—currently at 14. That number is expected to go down to two after tonight’s game against the Houston Rockets, and would theoretically expire after Saturday’s game against the Knicks. It remains a possibility that Philadelphia could convert one of Barlow or Walker, and then make a secondary move to get back underneath the first apron.
On an individual level, Barlow has 18 games of his initial 50 games left while Walker has eight. Those individual remaining game numbers matter because if Philadelphia were to add a 15th player to the roster, they would be able to play out what is left of their two-way player game totals, which, again, is 50.
The Sixers would need to either make a trade or sign a player, either to a standard or 10-day contract, to meet the requirement. According to multiple sources, Philadelphia plans to approach this trade deadline in a similar fashion to last season: shedding salary while looking to add young, cost-controlled talent where possible.
But why prolong their time on two-way deals? The salary ramifications.
Philadelphia currently sits $1,048,493 away from the first apron, according to Spotrac’s figures. Dominick Barlow, who holds three years of NBA service, would make the veteran minimum for a player with that level of experience, which is $2,378,870; however, that number would be prorated based on the remaining games. Prior to tonight’s matchup, that number would be just north of $1,160,424 and would put the team over the apron.
So, what’s the magic number? 36.
With a base pay of $2,378,870 prorated for 36 games remaining in the season, Barlow would be—roughly—owed just $1,044,382, keeping the team below the apron—though with little flexibility without shedding further salary. Any slight disruption to the team’s salary could affect these numbers, including the addition of a player on a 10-day deal.
The salary impact of 10-day contracts varies with the players’ experience.
The fine folks at hoopsrumors have put together a lovely breakdown, showing the difference based on years of service.
Even a rookie signed to a 10-day deal would cause Philadelphia to exceed the first apron if they did so and converted Barlow with 36 games remaining. They could opt to wait, then convert Walker or Barlow after their remaining games, but the difference in performance between Walker/Barlow and any 10-day signee would likely be profound enough to make the idea simply not worth pursuing.
For some time, there was word of the Sixers’ interest in bringing in a player on a 10-day contract, with mentioned names following a pattern of rebounding and rim protection; however, in recent days, the Sixers appear to be feeling less inclined to do so and may ultimately opt to shed some salary instead, allowing for Philadelphia to remain under the first apron.
The team may ultimately opt to skip a step and move straight to shedding salary via trade, but even still, signing a player to a 10-day deal remains a possibility, should the Sixers identify the correct player.
Who are the salary dump candidates?
The most commonly mentioned name I’ve heard in Sixers trade talks has been Andre Drummond.
Despite playing a recurring role as a starting center in Joel Embiid’s absence, Drummond’s expiring $5 million contract is simply worth the organization considering moving on from under the right circumstances, sources say.
Moving Drummond could immediately open up the opportunity to convert both Barlow and Walker to standard NBA deals.
Outside of Drummond, Eric Gordon is a potential candidate to be moved in the right scenario, while the future of wing Kelly Oubre, who has played a pivotal role on this team throughout his time in Philadelphia, will be the ultimate sign of the team’s willingness and confidence in competing in the East this season.
Oubre’s expiring deal, worth $8,382,150, would go a long way to not only avoiding the first apron but also ducking the luxury tax, something the Sixers have done in each of the previous three seasons.
After last season’s failures, there was some understandable frustration among the Sixers’ ownership group, despite both Daryl Morey and Nick Nurse retaining their positions. Would those frustrations, combined with the heights this team has enjoyed at times this season, persuade ownership to exceed the tax?
As the Magic 8 Ball says, “Don’t count on it.”
This is where things begin to get truly interesting for the Sixers.
While one goal of Philadelphia is to reduce costs, another is to acquire young, cost-controlled talent, signalling that it may not just be a series of subtractions fans see at the deadline, but perhaps an addition or two outside of the conversions of Barlow and Walker.
But who could the Sixers be after?
According to multiple sources, Philadelphia has registered some interest in the potential acquisition of Sacramento Kings guard Keon Ellis. However, Ellis is among the NBA’s most sought-after trade targets around the league.
Teams love the idea of Ellis due to his impressive motor, three-and-D ability, and his expiring minimum contract—any team acquiring Ellis would also retain his bird rights, allowing them re-sign him this offseason even if it were to cause them to go over the salary cap—and the Kings know this full well, reportedly seeking a first-round pick in return.
If you’re looking for the blueprint of the type of player Philadelphia is searching for, you’ve found it, and it’s not a new concept either.
Ideally, the Sixers would like a two-way player who could potentially be a part of the future while making an impact as early as this season. It is identical to what the team accomplished when they brought Quentin Grimes in from Dallas at last season’s deadline.
While specific names have been kept close to the vest, as Daryl Morey’s front offices tend to do, there is some ability to read tea leaves for players who match a similar description.
One player who, speculatively, fits that mold is Memphis forward GG Jackson II.
The Sixers have previously been connected to Memphis regarding a potential minor deal, with potential for Philadelphia to join a larger Memphis deal as a third team.
Since returning to the Grizzlies from a recent stint with their G League affiliate, the Memphis Hustle, Jackson has begun to return to his once-promising form, which could ultimately raise his price point above where Philadelphia is comfortable making a deal, but remains an intriguing potential option due to his size, athleticism, skillset, and cost-controlability.
