Taking Stock of J.J. Arcega-Whiteside's Rookie Year

Heading into the last game of the regular season, it's fair to say it has been an up and down year for rookie receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. The lows have kept him off the field, while the highs have been tempered by inconsistency. His achievements this year, however minor, are overshadowed when stacked up against other receivers of the 2019 draft class -- a class which has been nothing short of incredible. Even when stacked up against receivers taken in previous draft, JJAW's first year has been somewhat of a disappointment. Known for his catch radius, contested-catch prowess and red zone efficiency, he has just one touchdown to his name this season. With the Eagles' recent history of drafting underwhelming receivers, the statistics indicate that there a reason for Philly fans to feel nervous about Arcega-Whiteside's career trajectory. However, as we all know, the numbers never tell the full story. So, is there reason to believe that the young receiver can still become deserving of that second-round pick, or will he be just another failed experiment for the Eagles' scout staff? The Numbers Below is a list of all receivers taken in the second round since 2015, ranked by receiving yards per snap in their rookie year. While this is not the best metric for efficiency, yards per route run is a relatively recent development and is not readily available for every receiver. It also fails to account for a gadget players' added value. Still, it will do for the purpose of this comparison. The snap count numbers were taken from Lineups and Pro-Football Reference. As you scroll down the list, you'll notice JJAW is all the way at the bottom, above only Carolina's Curtis Samuel.

	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TDs	Ctch%	Snap	Yds/
A.J. Brown*	48	76	927	7	63.2	646	1.43
Michael Thomas	92	121	1137	9	76.0	867	1.31
JuJu Smith-Schuster	58	79	917	7	73.4	758	1.21
Deebo Samuel*	52	76	700	3	68.4	690	1.02
Dante Pettis	27	45	467	5	60.0	469	1.00
Devin Funchess	31	63	473	5	49.2	493	0.96
Dorial Green-Beckham	32	67	549	4	47.8	580	0.95
D.K. Metcalf*	52	88	819	6	59.1	873	0.94
Mecole Hardman*	25	40	508	6	62.5	575	0.88
Andy Isabella*	9	13	189	1	69.2	223	0.85
Courtland Sutton	42	84	704	4	50.0	846	0.83
Tyler Boyd	54	81	603	1	66.7	739	0.82
Average	35	59	492	4	59.0	597	0.82
Anthony Miller	33	54	423	7	61.1	614	0.69
Sterling Shepard	65	105	683	8	61.9	1006	0.68
Parris Campbell*	18	24	127	1	75.0	222	0.57
Zay Jones	27	74	316	2	36.5	797	0.40
James Washington	16	38	217	1	42.1	537	0.40
D.J. Chark	14	32	174	0	43.8	456	0.38
Devin Smith	9	28	115	1	32.1	312	0.37
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	10	22	169	1	45.4	489	0.35
Curtis Samuel	15	26	115	0	57.7	347	0.33

It surely has been a disappointing year for Eagles' receivers in general and that extends to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. The on-field production matches the pre-season estimates when he was thought to be a third or fourth option off the bench. Thrust into a starting role, he has yet to produce like a starter and the numbers show that he simply hasn't made enough of his chances. His statistics really don't show the full story and there are plenty of reasons to bank on Arcega-Whiteside's upside. Nevertheless, the lack of on-field production has prompted questions about why the Eagles drafted the Stanford alum in the first place. Draft Profile To understand exactly what JJAW brings to the table, we have to jump back to his time at college. Coming into the 2019 draft, Arcega-Whiteside was a receiver that flew under the radar and wasn't on many well-known draft board until much later than the second round. However, the scouts that did take notice immediately understood the pro potential the young man had and were quick to label him as a potential draft steal. His physical profile and sound technique were the main reasons why. In his draft profile of J.J., Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report wrote: "with a tantalizing combination of size, strength and the best high-pointing skills of any receiver in the draft, Arcega-Whiteside could wind up being the best receiver selected outside the first round in 2019. Arcega-Whiteside is also one of the more polished route runners in this year's class . . . also one of the better blockers. [He] might not have great burst off the line or when making cuts, but he more than compensates for both with consistently excellent technique. There's rarely any wasted movement or bad angles." Other draft profiles encompassed similar excitement. What made Arcega-Whiteside truly special was not simply his contested catch ability -- he led college football with 19 contested catches in 2018; double the number of the runner-up -- but his ability to leverage defenders into favorable positions. Adding an incredible ability to contort his long frame to a deep bag of get-offs, he had all the tools to translate his production to the NFL. This was not lost on J.J.. My coaches always told me that if you ever want to be good at something, be good at something you can't teach. Well I'm really good at running past corners downfield. It's not something that can be coached up. NFL Draft insider Lance Zurlein may have summarized it best: "he's smart enough to learn all the tricks to get open as a pro. I hear people underestimate him all the time." In preseason, Arcega-Whiteside displayed just that.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1164717179800977408

In this play, we see a bit of everything JJAW brings to the table as a receiver. With the defender in an outside shade, and a safety over top, he has a lot of work to do to get open in the corner of the endzone. He shows off his savvy get off to force the defenders hips to open to the sideline, then plants his foot firmly in the dirt to get upfield. At the top of the stem he uses a nice little head fake to create some confusion. Then, as soon as he has leverage, he stacks the defender to get on top of him, staying tight to his cover to avoid the safety and uses his strength to keep the corner underneath. The catch is a fantastic display of just how long the man is. He makes a very difficult catch seem routine and doesn't even break stride. On the play below, J.J.'s sheer strength is on display. Despite it being preseason, showing reliability on third down and the ability to come down with a challenged catch on a need-to-have play speaks volumes.

https://twitter.com/EagleSessions/status/1159627553604341760

It was this electric combination of skills that had Eagles fans salivating over the young receiver before the year had even started. Unfortunately, the early success didn't translate to regular season stats. Continued on the page below. The Film With damning numbers, it will be tough to call JJAW's rookie season anything but a disappointment. With the chance to start games both early in the season and as the year comes to a close, he really hasn't been able to translate opportunity to success. However, his numbers perhaps unfairly portray his potential moving forward. All that preseason hype shouldn't be forgotten. Despite having lackluster on-field production, there are some redeeming sentiments regarding Arcega-Whiteside's rookie season. First, it's important to understand the unique circumstances surrounding the young man's first year in the league. Earlier in the season, our very own Thomas Ringgaard Petersen dissected the tricky position JJAW into which was placed. A lot of the points made continue to ring true. While it doesn't account for every knock against Arcega-Whiteside, lack of sustained opportunity has certainly hampered the young receiver's ability to showcase his talent. It also has been an incredibly tumultuous road from draft pick to starting receiver for the Stanford alum. Before we go any further, I implore you to check out Thomas' article. I'll also be using a metric tonne of film analysis swiped from his Twitter. I highly recommend a follow, he's one of the best in the business for Eagles film.

https://phillysportsnetwork.com/2019/11/21/ff-6/

As we saw above, J.J.'s year started off with a bang. He was electric in the preseason, looking like a man among boys, even when forced to face the opponent's starting corners -- such as Titans' Malcolm Butler. Riding a high into the regular season, Arcega-Whiteside was handed the difficult task of filling Alshon Jeffery's shoes while he worked his way back from injury. Being a veteran, Jeffery is asked to run a myriad of routes in the Eagles offense despite his limitations as a route runner. In his first big week back from injury -- against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 6 -- this is what his route chart looked like.

While the offense was certainly simplified for Arcega-Whiteside, he was still asked to do much of the same to open up the field for the star of the offense -- Zach Ertz. While any respectable NFL receiver will be asked to run a wide range of route over the span of their career, a route tree like the one above is a lot to ask of a rookie in his first few regular-season games. It's no wonder videos surfaced of on-field confusion between the receivers. At Stanford, Arcega-Whiteside was rarely asked to cross the field or run any intricate routes. This has also given some credibility to the criticism that JJAW's route running may need some work at the professional level. He averages less than one yard of separation on his targets per PlayerProfiler. And yet, against the Falcons, J.J. was still able to find open field. As we continue to look at the game film, it doesn't seem that Arcega-Whiteside is hampered by his route running ability.

https://twitter.com/thomasrp93/status/1174663572439359490

https://twitter.com/thomasrp93/status/1174325743314247680

To quote JJAW himself, what he does well is beat corners downfield. Both of those plays are likely 50+ yard touchdowns if Wentz is able to get the ball to the young receiver. In just two plays, his numbers would look immediately better. Then came Alshon Jeffery's return to the lineup, which saw Arcega-Whiteside relegated to the 2nd team. He lost practice reps and crucial reps with Carson in at QB. He also cross trained at other positions for some reason I have yet to understand. Yes, versatility is a very valuable asset for any young player, but, let's be frank, JJAW was drafted to eventually supplant Jeffery, not to play slot receiver or to be a gadget/move player. The next time he would see any extended action was against the Patriots in Week 11. This one was in a streak of some of Wentz' worst games of his career, let alone this season. Again, J.J. is able to get open against a very good Patriots secondary. On plays were he doesn't get the ball, he shows off his blocking ability. Without the ball in his hands, he is still finding ways to positively impact the team.

https://twitter.com/thomasrp93/status/1196900818819207170

In this clip we again see questionable route choices from the coaching staff for JJAW. Sure, the young man is a big-bodied receiver with the ability to make contested catches. When you need a first down, a hook or an in makes sense. However, the one instance he is allowed to release downfield is on a designed screen. He easily finds space behind the defense, which we've seen over and over again. In an offense that struggles to find plays of 20 yards or more in the passing game, the reluctance to take a downfield shot to a player that has made his entire career of said plays is dumbfounding. He's had only 9 deep balls thrown his way all season -- averaging one a game. Then came what is likely the catch of the year for the Eagles. Continued on the page below.

https://twitter.com/thecheckdown/status/1204251124536004608

Whenever your receiver makes a catch like that for you downfield, it has to spark some confidence from your coaching staff and quarterback. The hope was that this play would reassure Carson to take a chance down the sideline when JJAW is on the field. The route is beautiful, the adjustment and catch even more so. Fast forward to last week's game against the Cowboys. On the very first play from scrimmage, the Eagles go right at J.J., who makes a fantastic catch. He also runs a very solid route on the play and if Wentz is able to hit him in stride, he may have been able to turn up field for a few more yards.

https://twitter.com/thomasrp93/status/1209266159796850688

After that play, Arcega-Whiteside seemingly disappeared. He left the game injured at one point but managed 45 offensive snaps for the game. He was targeted only once more for a 12 yard gain. Again fans questioned his ability to get open against professional competition. We'll turn to our friend Thomas for a response to that:

https://twitter.com/thomasrp93/status/1209478492842266628

What's Next J.J. Arcega-Whiteside's lack of rookie production is a puzzling conundrum. It isn't devoid of offensive snaps, his talent is clearly on display and yet it never really translated into on-field success. So, what needs to happen next season to change the narrative? The first is chemistry. Even with veteran receivers like Alshon Jeffery, we have seen that it takes time for Carson Wentz to develop enough trust in his receivers to throw them the football in contested situations. That is especially true down the sideline. Even with short and intermediate routes, little misunderstandings can lead to unsuccessful plays. We can see that on the play below, in which Carson expects J.J. to post up on the inside hip of his defender instead of drifting to the outside.

https://twitter.com/MundoEagles/status/1198959313458475008

Hopefully going forward we are able to see more of this relationship between Carson and J.J. develop. Next year's offense should undoubtedly feature more pass plays that allow Wentz to freestyle and get out of the pocket and JJAW has shown that he never gives up on a play. He's smart and understands where to go on a scramble to find open space. This is another ability that is difficult to teach as it's more about feel for the defense than specific positioning. Both plays below, showing Arcega-Whiteside recognize his QB is in trouble and work back to the football, emphasize a knowledge for the game.

https://twitter.com/EagleSessions/status/1159617317266964480

https://twitter.com/fduffy3/status/1201973334302433280

The other, more significant change that needs to happen is that the offensive coordinator (whoever that may be), needs to find ways to allow JJAW to do what he does best: Limit the plays where he has to make quick breaks to the inside of the field and let him keep his defender on an island. Allow the young man to beat defenders downfield, throw the ball early in the route and let him adjust to the football. Look for him and his massive frame inside the 20 and let him box out opposing defenders for contested catches. Lastly, remember that 50/50 balls are just that, 50%. Do not get discouraged when J.J. can't come down with the first one, there's a good chance he'll come down with the next one. Two targets is not enough, period. With the lack of success the Eagles have had developing in house receivers, there's reason to feel doubtful about Arcega-Whiteside's future return in midnight green. Without an impressive first-year number to point to, it can be difficult to make a case to maintain hope in the young fella. This is especially true when stacking him up against the other second-round receivers taken in recent years. However, the film certainly shows a tantalizing upside and with a little work and a little help, there's no reason he can't become a top option for what will hopefully be a much-improved offense next season. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports