In the two weeks since our Phillies' quarter-season review, we've seen some of the best and some of the worst baseball from the Fightins'. Now, as we enter in September, the Phillies have officially hit the halfway point of their season. Today, we take a look back as the Phillies enter into what will be a busy September for the club.
The Phillies' past two weeks
In our last review, we left off at the end of the Phillies' series sweep of the New York Mets. The Phils then shipped up to Boston for two games which resulted in a series split on August 18th-19th. August 20th was originally a day off on the shortened-season calendar. Instead, the Phillies found themselves in Buffalo to play a seven-inning doubleheader against the Toronto Blue Jays (2020, am I right?). The road team lost both sides of that doubleheader before catching a flight to Atlanta for a three-game set against the Braves.
The Phillies dropped the first two games of the series on August 21st-22nd. Now on a five-game losing streak, things were not looking good for the Phillies. Joe Girardi, a seasoned and player-savvy manager, took command and called a team meeting to rally the troops.
https://twitter.com/TimKellySports/status/1299815307725410304
They haven't looked back since. In the seven games since Girardi's team meeting, the Phillies have gone 6-1. The Phillies won the last game of the series in Atlanta and won their next two games against the Nationals.
https://twitter.com/Nationals/status/1298346711681839106
That's cute! Too bad the Nationals haven't beaten the Phillies since this was posted!
In their final series of the year against the Phillies last weekend, the Phillies dominated, taking the first two games 7-4 and 4-1. Following a five-game losing streak, the Phillies balanced the scales with a five-game winning streak. On Sunday, the Phillies lost to the Braves 12-10. After a 10-run second inning courtesy of Jake Arrieta and David Hale, the Phillies' offense showed resilience, coming back to within two runs. Even in defeat, this Phillies team showed that they are hungry to see a victory every day.
Yesterday, the Phillies wrapped up the month of August with an 8-6 victory over the Nationals: Spencer Howard's first big-league dub.
NL East Standings
With a month to go, the Phillies are in the middle of the pack in the race for the NL East. 15-15, the Phillies are tied with the Marlins for second place in the East while the Braves hold a three-game lead with a record of 20-14 (having played four more games).
Team
W-L
Pct.
GB
NL East
AL East
Atlanta Braves
20-14
.588
-
13-9
7-5
Miami Marlins
15-15
.500
3.0
10-11
5-4
Philadelphia Phillies
15-15
.500
3.0
12-7
3-8
New York Mets
15-20
.429
5.5
11-15
4-5
Washington Nationals
12-20
.375
7.0
6-10
6-10
The Phillies have played well in-division so far. They have yet to lose against the Mets or Nationals while having split their series against the Braves 5-5. They are 1-2 against the Marlins, but hopefully the Marlins' ruining the Phillies' July will be motivation enough to beat them in September. Only the Braves more wins in-division, 13-9, but that is mostly due to more games played.
Where the Phillies have been hurting is against the AL East. The Phillies have split their action against both the Yankees and Red Sox but have been swept in their five games against the Orioles and Blue Jays.
Observations on the offense and bullpen can be found on the page below.
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
The Offense
The Phillies' offense is on fire. They have scored an average of 5.67 runs per game over the course of 2020. Only the Dodgers and the Padres have scored more runs per game.
While Bryce Harper and J.T. "Pay Him" Realmuto have been the bonafide team leaders on offense this year, they no longer need to shoulder the brunt of the burden.
Joe Girardi has stuck with Andrew McCutchen and Rhys Hoskins at the top of the order this season, and they are beginning to demonstrate why. Cutch is batting .339/.361/.542 in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Big Hosk has hit home runs in three consecutive games and has hit five in his last seven games.
The rest of the Phillies' offense has turned it on the last few weeks. Even Scott Kingery was finding his rhythm before heading back to the IL yesterday with a back injury. With the addition of Alec Bohm and the return of Jay Bruce from the IL, the Phillies now have eleven players that they can turn to on any given day to contribute in the lineup.
Phillies' Starting Pitching
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have proven to be one of the best one-two punches in the NL East this year. Wheeler has pitched a team-leading 2.58 ERA over the course of his 38.1 IP while Nola has struck out 48 batters this season. Jake Arrieta has proven to be the weak link of the order so far. Following his blowout on Sunday, he is arguably the worst free-agent signing in franchise history. He has pitched a 6.49 ERA this year and is 2-4 in his six starts.
https://phillysportsnetwork.com/2020/08/31/jake-arrieta-has-become-the-worst-signing-in-phillies-history/
Meanwhile, Zach Eflin and Spencer Howard are finding their footing. Eflin pitched his best outing on the season on Saturday against the Braves. He pitched seven innings of one-run baseball and would have pitched the eighth inning if it weren't for an untimely rain delay. Howard pitched against the Nationals last night and looked great through five innings of work. Howard worked a high pitch count early that cost him longevity in the game, but struck out four and only allowed runs off of a Juan Soto home run.
Overall, the Phillies' pitching staff owns a 4.22 ERA this season. Given how Eflin and Howard have improved over the course of the season, expect that number to drop into the threes as we move into September.
The Bullpen
After acquiring David Hale, Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman, and now David Phelps, the Phillies' bullpen looks a lot deeper than it had a week ago. Adding veteran arms allows Girardi to take some stress off Hector Neris and company, especially now that the Phillies will be without David Robertson and (likely) Jose Alvarez for the rest of the season.
https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1300583209609166849
In fact, looking back at the Phillies' Opening Day roster, only Hector Neris, Adam Morgan, and Tommy Hunter remain in the bullpen today. And the bullpen has been getting better. The bullpen's ERA was 10.12 at it's worst. Today, it is sitting at 7.09. Still the worst in the league, but a lot of progress has been made. The main difference between now and two weeks ago is that the bullpen is no longer the main reason for defeat. The pen is still allowing an occasional run scored, but it can now hold onto a lead when given one.
Second Half Projections
Team
GP
Runs Scored
Runs Against
Projected Record
Atlanta Braves
34
175
149
34-26
Philadelphia Phillies
30
168
166
30-30
Washington Nationals
32
155
162
28-32
Miami Marlins
30
128
139
27-33
New York Mets
35
151
168
27-33
As the team head into the second half, they are right at where the numbers project them to be at 30-30. However, given how the offense is catching fire and pitching is stabilizing, I think it's safe to say that the Phillies will have their first winning record since 2011 this season.
That's not to say it will be easy, however. The Phils will need to play 30 games in 27 days with two days off and five scheduled doubleheader days. That kind of sprint could lead to fatigue quickly for the Phillies, and it is up to Joe Girardi to manage his players well.
Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire
