In less than two weeks, the 2023 All-Star Break will be upon all 30 Major League Baseball teams. For the Philadelphia Phillies, they find themselves 10.5 games behind the first-place Atlanta Braves but only two games out of a National League Wild Card spot.
All hope is not lost, especially considering the Phils just wrangled two out of three games away from their NL East rival New York Mets. Their lineup is solid, even potent at times and there is a more than capable pitching rotation who is seemingly out of their funk.
Are the Phillies ready to run it back?
If the situation also feels familiar for both fans and the clubhouse, that would be the correct feeling. It's a similar one to June 2022 when the president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski fired then-skipper Joe Girardi. Now manager Rob Thomson assumed his place and his 2022 postseason push with the Phillies secured him the job.
Things ARE familiar in 2023 and the same push is going to be required for Philadelphia to likely lock up the final NL Wild Card spot. Schedule-wise, it's going to be a bit more of an uphill battle than the year before.
They're going to have a series against the Cubs and fellow NL East member Washington Nationals, ideally, they should sweep both of them. Philly needs to win, or steal, games they should've lost and clearly win the games they need.
Things are heating up in Philadelphia
Pitching and hitting, to the surprise of no one, are starting to heat up here in June. They're 16-5 since June 2 and according to Nick Castellanos speaking to Fox Sports, they know what's expected of them:
We're just kind of getting settled in and we're getting back to the point where we're winning the games we're supposed to win. I think that's the first step for good teams. And then after you're winning all the games you're supposed to win, then you start figuring out ways to scratch and claw to win the hard games.
Nick Castellanos 6/28/23
Thomson and Co. understand things will get better and the wins will begin stacking up is rooted in their track record. Largely the same roster did it just last year.
Deja vu might be the right word for the situation.
As seems to be the story this season, the lineup still has not produced the power that was expected. So that means the Phillies have needed a certain level of execution from the pitching staff. Thankfully there is the strength of Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suárez that is shaking off the dust of the past three months.
Suárez specifically had one of his best months yet, finishing June with a 1.08 ERA. He’s also the first Phillies starter since Nola in August 2018 to post an ERA below 1.10 across at least 30 innings pitched in a single month. The arms are there and the bullpen has come in clutch when needed in lieu of a fifth starting pitching.
How the Phillies can keep momentum rolling
The key to making the postseason is going to rely on the big bats: Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and newcomer to the Phillies Trea Turner.
Good news for Turner, things started clicking in the past 30 days. Before June 1st, Turner’s individual strikeout percentage sat at 24.3 percent. He's whiffed a lot with runners in scoring position and that's elevated the Phillies number.
But he's getting better and not a moment too soon.
Turner's job of getting on base has gotten exponentially better, boasting an on-base percentage (OBP) of .367.
Despite signs of life, they still face tough competitors in the Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants.
Miami's increased their playoff odds have increased to 67.6 percent as they sit 13 games above .500, the first time in 14 years. They're also tied with the Braves for the best record in the Majors. One of them will take the spot solo after their weekend series.
The Dodgers have a chance as they currently hold the third Wild Card spot but to make the playoffs this season, they need a dramatic improvement in the bullpen. First baseman Freddie Freeman has had the best stretch in the past two weeks, going 8 for 43, with three doubles, one homer, and four RBI. He's also been slashing .186/.300/.326.
San Francisco faced a tough schedule lately but has risen up to the challenge. Starting pitching still seems to be a sticking point and they'll need the younger guys and depth to step up to the plate (mound really). They've got a great manager in Gabe Kapler, a solid lineup, and a bullpen that's been the bee's knees.
Even though Philadelphia hasn't shown us their sharpest, winningest baseball just yet, they have succeeded in avoiding a complete meltdown or spiral. The Phillies' performance in June seems like just the start of something special.
AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
