I admit, I was hesitant to even write that title. Partially because I think it's too early to anoint Scott Kingery the chosen one, and partially because I like Cesar Hernandez. But, as we so often have to do as journalists, it's time to take my emotions out of context, and contribute using my head and not my heart.
Cesar Hernandez hasn't fallen out of favor in Philadelphia; at least, he shouldn't have yet. He got off to an inauspicious start. At the same time, Scott Kingery appears to be hotter than the surface of the Sun right now. But don't synonymize the lack of success for one-second baseman with his immediate departure just yet. Over the last six games, Cesar Hernandez has accumulated nine hits in 27 at-bats: a .333 average on the dot. He's driven in four runs. He's walked six times. He's struck out just once. With the way that Scott Kingery is playing, this is a perfect example of "Iron Sharpens Iron".
All of these numbers, Phillies' fans, are important. Because the best thing that could happen to the Phillies is to have a second baseman dilemma, one in which both players are productive in the lineup, regardless of which position Gabe Kapler writes their names in each night.
Because should the productivity hold true, the Phillies have a prime trade candidate on their hands.
The team invested quite a bit of money in Scott Kingery last season before he stepped foot in a Major League batters box, mind you, and I'd be hard pressed to see them willing to make a move of any kind that involves the young infielder at this point. So that leaves Hernandez as a candidate to be moved for, perhaps, a more important piece down the stretch.
So let's take a look at three potential landing spots for Cesar Hernandez, and what he, along with others as part of a package, could return
Continued on the pages below.
Mandatory Credit: Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports
Cesar Heranandez and Middle Prospect To Pirates for Keone Kela
A reliever that the Phillies were heavily linked to during last season's trade deadline rumors, Kela went from the Texas Rangers to the Pittsburgh Pirates in somewhat of a surprising move. The Pirates appeared to be making a last ditch effort to remain in the playoff hunt, as they also acquired Chris Archer at the deadline. Now, the team seems to be moving in a different direction, and while Kela is only 26-years-old, I wonder if he's going to be part of the Pirates' plan moving forward.
Pittsburgh has solidified its closer spot with Felipe Vazquez. He's saved 64 games over the last three seasons. Kela has also struggled out of the shoot this season, posting an 8.10 ERA to begin the month. So two questions emerge with Kela: 1.) why would the Phillies trade for a pitcher that is struggling? 2.) why is the prospect involved?
Question one's answer is because he's 26-years-old and has posted a career ERA of 3.57 with 238 strikeouts in 192 innings pitched. We'll chalk this early season rough patch up to just that.
Question two's answer is because he's 26-years-old and has posted a career ERA of 3.57 with 238 strikeouts in 192 innings pitched. We'll chalk this early season rough patch up to just that.
Redundant? Probably. But it's specifically designed to drive the point home that Kela is a young arm who's had much success in the past. It'll Hernandez and the middle tier prospect to get this kind of move done. Kela could slide into a role toward the back end of the bullpen as the reliever who can get you a strikeout with the bases loaded and two outs.
2. Cesar Hernandez To Rockies for Scott Oberg
Sometimes, you have to give up something to get something in return. That, of course, is how all trades work, but this may be as even a swap as you'll see.
The Phillies are in need of another bullpen arm. Scott Oberg would fill that role nicely. Daniel Murphy has a broken finger, and the timetable for his return continues to get pushed back. And while rookie Garrett Hampson has been getting the bulk of the starts at second base, his .200 batting average, and the team's 6-12 record, would prove that the Rockies likely aren't thrilled with the production at second base.
In theory, the Phillies have a surplus of infield depth. Again, in theory, the Rockies have a deep bullpen. And while team's aren't thrilled about parting with good bullpen arms, we harken back to the original thought of giving up something good to get something good.
Oberg's career numbers are a bit misleading. He has a career 4.23 ERA. But it appears that the 29-year-old has figured things out over the course of the last two seasons. Last year, he posted a 2.45 ERA. In the early goings this season, he has a 2.45 ERA. The staggering drop from three seasons around 5.00 has proven that he may have turned the corner. His strikeout to walk ratio has significantly improved over the last three seasons. Last year it was 4.75 K/BB. In the first three weeks of the season, including 7.1 innings pitched, it's 2.66, but that number should go up as his total number of innings rises.
This wouldn't be the flashiest of trades for the Phillies, and on the surface, you might even say the Rockies won the deal, but Oberg provides more stability in the back end of the rotation, give Gabe Kapler another solid bullpen piece, and allows Scott Kingery to play every day. All wins for Phillies fans.
3. Cesar Hernandez, Mickey Moniak, One Other Prospect to Giants for Madison Bumgarner
Did I have to save the big one until the end? No, but I know this is one that many have speculated in recent days, so I wanted to get the less obvious ones out first.
Madison Bumgarner will continue to be on the Phillies radar until the very last moment on July 31, when the trade deadline passes. And what's to like about the prospects of acquiring a former World Series MVP and four-time All-Star such as Bumgarner. It feels as if he's been in the league forever, which would lend you to believe he's already in his 30's, but Bumgarner is actually just 29. He won't be 30 until the day after the trade deadline, for those who believe is some weird other-worldly signs.
Bumgarner may not dominate as he had in years past, but in the last three seasons, including this young 2019 campaign, Bumgarner has posted a 3.24 ERA, walking just 67 over 269 innings pitched. He was injured in parts of 2017 and 2018, making just 38 starts combined. The injury concerns are certainly there, but the upside is too tremendous to pass up, especially if Aaron Nola is more seriously troubled than we're led to believe.
The Phillies may not be getting the pitcher who faced 800 or more hitters in six consecutive seasons or the one who struck out 190 or more in all of those seasons, or the World Series MVP. But what they would be getting is a veteran pitcher with tremendous talent, one that could help anchor the starting rotation down the stretch. Think about how this sounds: a healthy Nola, a productive Bumgarner, and resurgent Jake Arrieta. A five-game series in the NLDS doesn't sound very scary anymore. You wouldn't have to worry about Nick Pivetta pitching a game three. Vince Velasquez wouldn't start a game in the playoffs. It would be a much more calming rotation.
The thing with Bumgarner, regardless of the Giants expectation of not being a playoff contender, and Bumgarner's impending free agency at the end of the season, San Francisco isn't going to simply give him away because the Phillies asked nicely. He'll require a haul in return. Hernandez is a piece that the Giants could use as a top of the order hitter in their rebuild. They do currently have Joe Panik as well, so one may have to find a secondary position to play. But Hernandez works well in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, where hitters who get on base are valued.
In addition to Hernandez, the Giants will require a top prospect back, which would likely come down to one of four names. Two of those names, Adam Haseley and Arquimedes Gamboa, I would be remiss to part with. So it comes down to two players, pitcher Adonis Medina, and outfielder Mickey Moniak. Medina's value is higher. I doubt the Phillies want to get rid of him after trading Sixto Sanchez this offseason. That means it could be former number one overall pick, Mickey Moniak. Moniak hasn't proven he's the breakout star the Phillies hope, but he's steadily improved since becoming a professional at 18-years-old. Now, at 21-years-old, he's with AA Reading. He's an acceptable trade piece for a big-time name like Bumgarner.
But he and Hernandez aren't enough. That's why there's "one other prospect". That prospect will depend on the market for starting pitching. If the market is low, it could be a middling name. If the market is stiff, the Phillies may have to fork up another top 20 prospect. Only time will tell.
Mandatory Credit: Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports
