Morgan Burkett
All seems to be going swimmingly so far for Jordan Howard's tenure in Philadelphia. Minus an unfortunate injury that caused him to miss last Sunday's matchup against the Patriots, Howard has been a factor week in and week out. As advertised, he's been a physical presence on an offense that has needed a shot in the arm and has made a fantastic yin to rookie Miles Sanders' yang. He is currently the team's leading rusher and has maintained a steady 4.4 yards per rush. It's no wonder that mounting cries for the Eagles to re-sign the fourth-year back have picked up steam over the last few weeks.
A lot of the same could be said for Jay Ajayi's time with the Birds. Apart from his time on the sidelines due to injury, Ajayi caused an immediate and lasting impact on the offense. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his eleven regular-season games with the Eagles and added over 100 yards receiving. In the 2017-2018 playoffs, he accounted for over 250 yards of total offense and was a huge part of the Eagles' first Super Bowl. As long as he's healthy, welcoming Ajayi back into the rotation makes a lot of sense. With Jordan Howard sidelined and no guaranteed timetable to return, Ajayi is a great fit to take over a bulk of his carries on early downs and short yardage.
With Howard out of the lineup and the coaching staff clearly not yet comfortable putting Ajayi in the game, the Eagles' running backs ran the ball only 18 times against the Patriots. Doug Pederson himself admitted that he would have liked to run the football more frequently. Without question, the Eagles offense has been more successful when they lean on the running game. For the rest of the season, Philadelphia has the benefit of playing some pretty paltry run defenses. Aside from Seattle -- ranked 12th -- no other opponent ranks in the top 15: Dallas (16th), NYG (23rd), Washington (28th), and Miami (31st). That means there will be ample opportunity for Ajayi to make an impact if Howard misses any more time.
The question then becomes, what happens when Howard is healthy, and what does this mean for the former Chicago Bear's future in Philly?
2019-2020
In answering the first part of that question, it's easiest to assume that Ajayi will shoulder the third runningback responsibility when Howard returns. Boston Scott currently holds that role and has seen an uptick in usage over the past five weeks, with a brief respite in week 10 when a healthy Darren Sproles was tossed into action. Regardless of who holds the mantle, Jordan Howard's carries won't necessarily be directly affected; Miles Sanders' usage has a much more correlated relationship. Below is a usage chart comparing the snap share between Howard and the third running back.
| 3rd Runningback | Snap% | J.Howard Snap% |
| Week 1 | Jordan Howard | 23% | 23% |
| Week 2 | Jordan Howard | 22% | 22% |
| Week 3 | Jordan Howard | 33% | 33% |
| Week 4 | Darren Sproles | 11% | 53% |
| Week 5 | Darren Sproles | 15% | 43% |
| Week 6 | Boston Scott | 6% | 63% |
| Week 7 | Boston Scott | 13% | 38% |
| Week 8 | Boston Scott | 12% | 73% |
| Week 9 | Darren Sproles | 11% | 48% |
| Week 11 | -- | 0% | -- |
Based on this, we can assume that Ajayi's snap share will begin with a floor of approximately 5-10% (between 4 and 8 snaps, give or take). That being said, his ceiling could be upwards of 20% (approximately 15 snaps). On top of that, although Boston Scott has only seen 11.1% of the team's offensive snaps in his four games, he's received a 21.6% opportunity share (per PlayerProfiler). Therefore, although his role is small, it's pointed. The third running back on the roster's usage may be situational, but it is also intentional.
This brings us to why Ajayi was brought in -- aside from Howard's injury. Although Scott's physique and athletic acumen lends to his ability in space and catching the football out of the backfield, that's not how he's being used in the Eagles offense. Instead, Boston Scott has been used to run the football.
Looking at why that is, it seems simply that catching the football and getting into open space is not what the Birds need from their third running back this season. In the past, the top two runners in the offense have been bigger backs who lacked ability in the passing game. Enter Miles Sanders; that is now a strength. The rookie has assumed the collective role of Darren Sproles, Corey Clement, and Wendell Smallwood.
Therefore, in his first four games of 2019, Boston Scott has seen a majority of his 23 carries from under center (52.2%) and has only one target. On paper, that is a role much more tailored to Jay Ajayi's skill set. At the very least, Ajayi has the added benefit of drawing defenders into the box. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry from under center in 2018.
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Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Even with all those carries coming from under center, Scott faces a loaded box only 17.4% of the time. Opponents are willing to line up with a light front and still feel they can contain the smaller back. So far, they have been correct, with Scott averaging only 3.8 yards per carry against a light front, which he faces 52.3% of the time. Against the same front, Ajayi averaged 5.8 ypc in 2017 and 4.2 in 2018. Moreover, Ajayi has commanded a base defense (with 7 defenders in the box) around 43% of the time over the last two years. Forcing a third linebacker on to the field in particular situations is essential to the Eagles offense, who love to run pass plays from 12 personal and heavy-set looks.
Thus, it's likely that when Howard returns, Ajayi is used to keep him fresh and will undertake some early-down carries and short-yardage situations. Passing downs will still likely remain in the hands of Miles Sanders, with Jordan Howard's incredible pass blocking giving him the edge over Ajayi for second fiddle.
Using this rubric, the Eagles will also be able to keep Ajayi fresh. Something that he has in his bag of tricks over Howard is the ability to break runs for long gains. This is something that has been sorely missing from the Eagles offense. Miles Sanders seems to be the only player on the offense that can generate any play of 25 yards or longer.
Howard's longest run of his career came in his rookie season when he scampered for 69 yards. Including that run, he has just 11 games with runs of 25+ yards in his career, six of which came in his rookie year. Ajayi, on the other hand, had a penchant for long runs in Miami and appropriately marked his landing in Philly with a 46-yard touchdown in his first game with the team. The hope is that he will be able to replicate those long runs on fresh legs.
Finally, the point should be made that as the cold weather starts rolling in and playoff positions become more cemented, there's no such thing as too many talented RBs. The Eagles had their best season with three starting-caliber runners on the team and ran opponents into the ground in blistering weather at the Linc. Preparing for a late push for the NFC East title, the Birds will have to replicate their ground and pound dominance in 2019. Here's hoping the play calling will follow suit.
2020 and Beyond . . .
So, for at least the rest of this season, Ajayi and Howard should be able to coexist. But what about the future?
Unbeknown to most of us, hidden in Jay Ajayi's contract details was a clue. While exact numbers are still trickling through the grapevine, a simple, yet informative clause was found in the fine print.
On the surface, it doesn't look good for anyone in Philly that purchased a Jordan Howard jersey. However, a potential Jay Ajayi extension shouldn't actually impose a threat on Howard's future with the Eagles. What it will do is put a cap on the amount the front office is willing to spend to keep him in Philadelphia. In previous articles, I've estimated Howard could ask for a similar contract to Atlanta's Devonta Freeman, netting him around $8M/year. That number may now be capped closer to $6M/year in Howie Roseman's eyes. The final number may be even lower knowing the Eagles front office's distaste for spending on backs.
It also means that, even with the capital spent on Miles Sanders, the Eagles will be rolling with a runningback-by-committee approach for the foreseeable future. That doesn't mean that the second RB spot will be taken by Ajayi. In fact, it may give a little traction to Howard staying in Philly -- for the right price of course. Howie knows they will need a bigger back to help carry the load as Sanders gets more accustomed to the NFL run game and for now the best candidate is Jordan Howard.
Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
