Since 2010, the Philadelphia 76ers have made seven selections inside the draft lottery from 2010 to 2024. Two of these selections ended up winning Rookie of the Year, but neither had an illustrious career with the team.
This past offseason, the Sixers added an eighth selection when they drafted former Baylor Bear VJ Edgecombe to the roster, a highly athletic guard with great defensive instincts and finishing ability. The question remains, though, what would Edgecombe need to do this season to win Rookie of the Year?
Historical Precedent
To fully unravel this question, there needs to be an understanding of why other players have won Rookie of the Year in the past. Looking at every Rookie of the Year winner since 2010, there are a few clear paths to winning Rookie of the Year. Using the past 15 Rookie of the Year winners, ranging from 2010 to now, they can be broken down into four different divisions.
Division 1: Dominant
The first way to win the Rookie of the Year award is to be truly team-changing in comparison to your peers. This is path is the dominant tier. Being in this tier means that, compared to other rookies from that season, the player led all rookies in at least three traditional counting statistical categories.
For example, Victor Wembanyama and Ben Simmons led all rookies in three categories in the 2023-24 and 2017-18 seasons, respectively. This category historically goes to sure-fire number one picks, and with Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper projected to be high-end players this season, it is unlikely, but not impossible, that Edgecombe is leagues above the rest of his rookie peers.
Division 2: Incredibly Impressive
The next division is those rookies who were incredibly impressive, but weren’t immediately talked about as a future top 10 player. This is typically reserved for rookies who led their respective rookies in multiple categories or finished in the top five in multiple categories.
Rookies who fit in this division are players like LaMelo Ball, who led rookies in assists and steals per game, while also finishing top five in points and rebounds a game. These players typically go on to have All-Star-level careers and bring highlights and a sense of excitement to their team
While this is something that Edgecombe could do if he is both a better shooter than expected and an NBA-ready defender immediately, his ability to make this level of impact as a rookie could be limited by the Sixers’ depth with Paul George, Justin Edwards, Quentin Grimes and Jared McCain all on the roster.
Division 3: The Swiss Army Knife
This division of rookies are the guys who can do it all on the court. While they may not be the best-of-the-best at multiple or even one thing, they are so good at each of them that it makes it hard not to justify giving them the award.
For example, Scottie Barnes, a former player under Sixers’ head coach Nick Nurse, won the Rookie of the Year award without leading rookies in any of the main counting stats. However, Barnes did finish top five for rookies in four different categories.
Luka Doncic, leading in one and finishing top five in three, and Malcolm Brogdon, top five in three stats, also qualify for this division, highlighting the range of quality these players can turn into. With Edgecombe’s well-rounded game, this seems to be the most likely way for him to win Rookie of the Year.
Division 4: Dominant by Comparison
Similar to the dominant division is the tier that had the benefit of a weak draft class. These guys weren’t necessarily going to be looked at as future Hall of Famers, but had dominant rookie years all the same. This is where someone like Michael Carter-Williams fits in.
While Carter-Williams had a tremendous rookie year, leading all rookies in points, assists, rebounds and steals per game, this was likely due to the other rookies not playing as well as they would later in their career.
Another rookie who may fit into this category would be Andrew Wiggins, who only led his fellow rookies in scoring and only had one other category where he finished top five among rookies (rebounds per game). Yet his scoring and his draft pedigree helped him win the award. With a clear top two players drafted ahead of Edgecombe this year, this doesn’t seem to be a highly likely path for him.
What does Edgecombe realistically need to do to win Rookie of the Year?
Edgecombe can fall into any of these divisions and win the award. With that being said, to win the Rookie of the Year award, he will need to meet certain criteria.
First and foremost, Edgecombe needs to remain healthy. To even qualify for the award, he would need to play for a minimum of 20 minutes a game for at least 65 games this season. On top of that, it is important to note that no Rookie of the Year in the last 15 seasons has played less than 26 minutes per game.
As far as statistics go, he will likely need to lead all rookies in at least one traditional category. For Edgecombe, this is most likely to be steals per game, as he averaged 2.1 a night in college. He will also need to finish at least top five in points per game, as none of the award winners in the same 15-season timeline have ever finished lower than fifth in scoring for rookies.
Finally, Edgecombe will likely need to also finish top five in one of the following categories: rebounds, assists, or blocks. While this may seem like a tall order for the 20-year-old guard, if he can put all of his elite skills and athleticism together early this season, he may very well be able to press his claim for the illustrious award.
