Jalyn Smoot
With the annual, lively winter meetings less than a month away, free agency and trade news abounds as teams get a bit more loose-lipped around the event. Most of the buzz is fairly light at the moment, as general managers are also wary of revealing too much of their plans too early in the winter.
Still, there are already a lot of big names being floated around as
potential trade chips. Stars Francisco Lindor, Kris Bryant, and Corey Kluber
are all said to be available for the right price. Infielders White Merrifield and
Miguel Andújar seem to be on the trade block as well.
I don’t expect the Phillies to target any of them, though, as the price
will likely be too step for their lackluster farm system. There is one trade
target, though, that the Phillies should undoubtedly pursue (again) this
offseason- Robbie Ray.
According to Jayson Stark of The Athletic, teams sense that the
Diamondbacks are more willing to deal the 28-year-old starter than they
were a year, or even a few months ago. After trading franchise cornerstone
and star slugger Paul Goldschmidt and losing lefty ace Patrick Corbin via free
agency last offseason, the Diamondbacks seem to have their eye on the
future and plan on rebuilding.
A future that doesn’t include Ray, evidently, as the former all-star is
up for grabs once again this year.
As some of you may recall, Ray was a trade deadline target for the
pitching-needy Phillies this past summer. A Tennessee native, the southpaw
starting pitcher has been a member of the Diamondbacks for the last five
seasons- including a breakout, all-star campaign in 2017.
Though he wasn’t a perennial Cy Young award threat during his stint
with Arizona, he was a serviceable starter. Known best for his gaudy
strikeout numbers, Ray’s 30.8 percent strikeout rate since the start of 2016
ranks fourth among all starters, trailing only Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and
Justin Verlander. Over that same span, the 70.8 percent opponents’ contact
rate against Ray is the fourth-lowest in the Majors(!).
Despite his relatively moderate earned run averages and supreme
strikeout ability, Ray has only compiled 28 wins since 2015- 15 of which
came during his 2017 all-star season.
Still, Ray would be a vast improvement from the current staff in Philly.
With the same shoddy, underwhelming pitching staff still in place from a
season ago, the Phillies very well may make a second run at Ray.
The Phillies would also be getting Ray at a discounted price, as he’s
only projected to make roughly $11M in his final trip through the arbitration
process.
At 28-years-old and approximately $11M, Ray is arguably a better value than Madison Bumgarner or Cole Hamels- who have both drawn interest from the Phillies this winter and will command top dollar for their services. Bumgarner, who was tendered a qualifying offer by the Giants, would cost the Phillies something upon acquisition in addition to the massive figure he’ll sign for. Hamels, conversely, won’t cost a team draft compensation upon signing, which may attract the Phils' front office towards him. Be that as it may, I’d argue that Ray is still a better value than Hamels.
For starters, Ray is nearly ten years younger than Hamels, and while I
don’t doubt the former World Series MVP still has some juice left in the tank,
Ray could serve as a long-term solution at the position and not just a
placeholder.
Furthermore, their numbers aren’t all that different over the last five
years, conceivably making Ray the more attractive option given his age.
Here’s a look at each of their numbers since 2015:
Robbie Ray, ARI
|
Year
|
W
|
L
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
GS
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
|
2015-19
|
34
|
34
|
.500
|
3.84
|
107
|
588
|
519
|
251
|
75
|
261
|
720
|
|
Average
|
8
|
8
|
27
|
147
|
130
|
63
|
19
|
65
|
180
|
Cole Hamels, PHI, TEX, CHC,
|
Year
|
W
|
L
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
GS
|
IP
|
H
|
ER
|
HR
|
BB
|
SO
|
|
2015-19
|
55
|
38
|
.591
|
3.72
|
147
|
893
|
817
|
369
|
110
|
313
|
851
|
|
Average
|
11
|
8
|
29
|
179
|
163
|
74
|
22
|
63
|
170
|
As you can see, the two seem to be on equal planes as far as
production goes. Hamels obviously has been a lot more durable during this
stretch- starting 40 more games than Ray. While Hamels’ durability is
encouraging, especially deep into his 30s, it's important to note that none of
Ray’s injuries were arm-related. So his availability is more a result of dumb
luck than his arm falling apart from use.
Breaking down from overuse is something I’m concerned with when it
comes to Hamels, however, who has logged nearly 2700 career innings
pitched across 14 big league seasons. Soon to be 36-years-old in December,
Hamels is no spring chicken anymore and has to be nearing the end of his
playing career soon. And, while I’m certainly not rooting for his decline, I
think it's a valid concern the Phillies should keep in mind.
After reflecting on the numbers, acquiring the much younger Ray for $11M seems like the wiser decision for a Phillies team desperately searching for viable starting pitchers. As far as the cost goes, the Diamondbacks are rumored to prefer a controllable pitcher, but also wouldn’t pass on the right bat. Either way, the Phillies should be in the mix for the lefty’s services.
Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
