Would the #2 seed benefit the Phillies in the 2024 playoffs?

In 2022, Major League Baseball introduced a new variation to their playoff format. Expanding the playoffs to 12 teams, MLB introduced a system of three division winners and three wild card teams.

The Philadelphia Phillies benefitted from this expansion, earning their first playoff birth since 2011. They would join the Tampa Bay Rays as the inaugural first batch of 6-seeds. The new system introduced a first round for the top two seeds in each league. This twist to postseason baseball has been a hot topic as the team with the first-round bye has won just three of eight series over the first two years.

With the Phillies sitting in second place in the National League, they are on track to have the first-round bye. Regardless of the first or second seed, the Phillies would have that time off in between games. You can argue whether or not it would benefit the club. You could also argue which seed is better. Allow me to explain.

Home field advantage

Having the No. 1 seed in the playoffs means that you were the best club in your league during the season. That in and of itself should be recognized as an accomplishment over the course of a 162-game season.

If the season ended today, the Phillies would play the winner of the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves. Those two clubs would face off in a best-of-three series; the winner would start in Philadelphia for a best-of-five game series. The Phillies would host three of five games if the series went the full length.

By advancing in that series, the Phillies would play either the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, or Los Angeles Dodgers based on those two previous matchups that would occur. At this point, it is safe to say the Phils would play a team out West.

However, if the Phillies can move their way past the Los Angeles Dodgers, they would then have to face the winner of the Padres-Diamondbacks. Ironically, those are the two teams the club has faced in consecutive National League Championship Series.

Homefield advantage would belong to the Phillies in every series if they were the No. 1 seed. If they fall to No. 2, they would theoretically lose that advantage to the Dodgers. 

Phillies best hope

As it stands, the Phillies would benefit from the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Getting to avoid the Diamondbacks and Padres, the two hottest teams in baseball, would be more helpful, in my opinion.

The Phillies are currently 3-0 on the season against the Brewers, with a road series to Milwaukee still on the calendar for September. Barring a sweep at the hands of Rhys Hoskins and the Crew, the Phillies should win the season series between the two teams. They played great baseball against the Brewers earlier in the year, but that could be said about any team the Phillies faced before the All-Star break.

Milwaukee has lost their starting outfielder Christian Yelich for the remainder of their season. Their pitching staff has dealt with tremendous amounts of injury. While they are playing well, they are largely unproven when it comes to post-season baseball.

They would likely oppose the Atlanta Braves in the first round. It is well documented the injuries and struggles the Braves have faced during the 2024 regular season. Despite the hurdles, the team is still in striking distance for both the playoffs and the NL East crown.

While the Phillies have not performed well against Atlanta this season, the last two years of post-season success give them the edge in the matchup. 

Anyone’s ballgame

At the end of the day, the post-season has shown to be anyone’s ballgame.

Major League Baseball has a playoff system that rewards the hottest team in October. Seeds lose meaning when teams are playing their best ball. The last two seasons have shown the Phillies can play from any spot in the playoffs. Whether or not things will change as one of the top dogs remains to be seen.

At the end of the day, we just have to sit back and wait to see who will walk out off 2024 as champion. Phillies fans hope to see their club back in the dance once again, and I believe landing as the second seed might be the path to accomplishing that goal.