Eagles GM Howie Roseman has spoken about the importance of hitting on their day-one and day-two picks and Philadelphia’s success in doing so over the last 5 years. A humble brag for Howie: 14 of their 15 Day 1 and Day 2 picks are now starters.
The success the Eagles' front office has enjoyed is hard to sustain in any round, but the odds are increasingly unfavorable on day 3.
My model has defined success as being a multi-year starter or contributor. For context, the baseline historical numbers are across all positions during the NFL Draft. These medians reflect aggregated historical draft studies based on data from Pro Football Reference, Over the Cap, and multiple public draft analytics models.
My requirements were 32 career starts or 50% of offensive or defensive snaps over 2 years of the initial contract. The snap percentage captures positions that rotate frequently, such as edge rushers and nickel defenders. Some of the studies I consulted for this piece use 40–60% snap thresholds; therefore, results vary slightly across models.
When evaluating draft outcomes, it is essential to consider a team's organizational development and structure, as well as the longevity of its positional coaching. Those variables can be a significant advantage, enabling teams to consistently outperform league averages. We have seen Seattle, Kansas City, and Philadelphia do this over the last seven-plus years.
Below are league-wide hit rates for all positions combined.
Round One 55–60%
Round Two 35–40%
Round Three 25–30%
Day Three 15–20%
Round Success Rate
Round 1 35–40%
Round 2 15–20%
Round 3+ Under 10%
QB has a high bust rate, even when using early draft capital. The elite upside of having a franchise quarterback complicates draft value and often leads teams to swing for the fences to find their playcaller, even knowing the outcome is highly volatile.
Round Success Rate
Round 1 60–65%
Round 2 40–45%
Round 3–4 25–30%
Day 3 overall 15–20%
Running backs have an easier transition to NFL production than most other positions, but this transition is accompanied by a shorter career lifespan, which reduces long-term value.
Round 1 50–55%
Round 2 35–40%
Round 3 25–30%
Day 3 12–18%
The development curve is important when assessing their value. Strong hit rates in Round 2/3 compared to other positions.
Round 1 40–45%
Round 2 30–35%
Round 3+ 15–20%
One of the slowest-developing positions, many breakouts occur in years 3–4.
Round 1 65–70%
Round 2 40–45%
Round 3 25–30%
Day 3 15%
One of the safest premium picks. True franchise tackles heavily skew round one success. It is the best place to land your team's bodyguard.
Round 1–2 55–60%
Round 3–4 30–35%
Day 3 20–25%
Day 2 is the optimal time to draft this position, with historically strong value returns.
Round 1 55–60%
Round 2 35–40%
Round 3 20–25%
Day 3 10–15%
Elite traits heavily correlate with early-round success. Sack and pressure production drop sharply after Round 2.
Round 1 60–65%
Round 2 40–45%
Round 3 25–30%
Day 3 15–20%
One of the most reliable early-round investments. Most premium athletic DTs hit at very high rates, making the first round a safe bet to select their IDL of the future for teams in need.
Round 1 45–50%
Round 2 35–40%
Round 3–4 25–30%
Day 3 15–20%
The modern NFL has devalued run-first linebackers due to increased coverage demands, creating greater volatility in their success.
Round 1 50–55%
Round 2 35–40%
Round 3 20–25%
Day 3 12–15%
Development and scheme fit matter heavily when deciding which CB to draft up high.
Round 1 45–50%
Round 2 40–45%
Round 3–4 30–35%
Day 3 20–25%
Nickel roles matter at both defensive back positions in determining draft success, and snap % is a better metric than starts for assessing their true impact. The position requires cognitive processing, schematic versatility, and role projection, rather than purely transferable athletic traits, all of which are key to success in the NFL.
The NFL Draft is one of the more enjoyable times of the year for fans, as they compare mock drafts and hope springs eternal for teams looking to rebuild or stock up on a championship-caliber roster.
So much effort, planning, decision-making, research, and data analysis go into this process that it can be overwhelming at times, but as the first scout who showed me the ropes years ago taught me, trust the tape; it’s as simple as whether they can play.
If teams can figure that out, they would avoid the potholes of the descending hit rates that occur throughout the draft.
As always, thank you for reading!
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